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Thanks fellow Aussie.
I was originally thinking that the chance of winning 900 chips was outweighed by the chance of losing 3000. So the fold equity would need to be quite high to make up for all the times we lose our stack . After thinking more about it and fiddling with a spreadsheet, its alot clearer that shoving is +EV because we win often enough even when called.
For instance, even if the villians only folded 50% of the time (conservative) and called our shove the other 50%, and assuming we only won half the flips when they call (also conservative), its still massively EV, as:
Villians folds = 0.5 * 900 = 450
Villian calls (but we win showdown) = 0.25 * 6000 = 1500
Villian calls (we lose at showdown) = 0.25 * -3000 = -750
Overall EV = 450+1500-750 = 1200
Sweet! Appreciate your comments.
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