Thread: swings in limit & win-rate
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scarface_0001
Old 10-08-2009, 04:25 PM     Post subject: Re: swings in limit & win-rate #5 (permalink)  
One Pair

Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 20
scarface_0001
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdpikas
sample size is too small, but, maybe ur not getting full value on your hands?
Usually when I have a hand I bet bet bet on all streets if my opponent doesn't raise. I almost never slowplay. Sometimes I wait for the turn to raise my opponent's donkbet or for the river (usually for the turn) if I have position with good hands. Only in heads-up pots. I don't think I don't get full value on my hands. I think I calldown too much on the river when my opponent raises. Even if I know there are high chances I'm beat sometimes I can't fold for one more bet.

Quote:
Originally Posted by asdpikas
as for swings, 60-70BB isnt that much.
Today I played 1100 hands of FR and after 300 hands was down 55BB, in the end I made a profit.

It is the equivalent of 2.5 buyins, if u've never encountered that kind of swings in NL, u haven't played enough hands by a long shot.
I had more than 2.5 BI swings in NL but because my opponents are weak (I play NL on 888) I usually win them back pretty fast. It seems that at limit the edge I have over weaker opponents is not so big.

Is there a program that shows me what the probability to have a downswing in 10K hands or in 100K hands is if I know my SD and WR?
Let's suppose I have a SD of 18BB/100 and a WR of 2BB/100. It would be interesting to know what are the chances to have negative win-rate after 10K, 20K or 100K hands.
I couldn't believe it when I read on DC that downswings of +300BB are possible even for a winning player and that a 1BB/100 winner had downswings that lasted 100K hands.
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