One Pair
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 20
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I have started to play limit a month ago. First I studied theory about this game, I read all the limit threads from Deucescracked and then I started playing at micro limits ($.05/$0.10, $0.1-$0.2, $0.12-$0.25).
I'm mainly a NL player but at NL I don't have the problems I have when playing FL. I win almost every day at NL. I can't say the same about FL even if my opponents are weak.
I play preflop after a 6-max chart I've found on 2+2. The only thing I do differently from that chart is I don't overlimp after only one limper. And when I run bad I don't make too much blind defence with marginal hands.
Postflop I think I play ok. Even if I don't play perfectly I'm sure I play better than my opponents. A problem is I don't know when to call down A hi or K hi, but I bought Stox book and I hope it can help me on this subject. Until then I tend to don't go to SW with these marginal hands.
I think I am even a small winner but I have had 60-70BB downswings at micro limits in a single day with players worse than me. Upswings? I never had a 60-70BB upswing in only one day.
Is there a program that can tell me what the probability of having a downswing or a number of break-even hands is if I know my standard deviation and my win-rate?
What is normal SD and WR for 6max micro limits?
I'm curious if is just variance or is bad play. I don't think is bad play (because even if I not make 100% the right decisions I'm sure I play better than my opponents; and in poker you may be a winner even if you don't play perfectly, if your opponents play worse than you), but want to be sure.
I've heard that 1BB/100 or 2BB/100 are considered good WR. IMO these are very low WR. And I read on DC about a 1BB/100 winner at 2-4 (sample size of over 500K hands) who had downswings that lasted 100K hands. If I have this problems at micro limits I don't want to imagine what will happen if I start to play higher limits (I have bankroll from my NL winnings to play higher limits but I'm afraid I will bust my bankroll, that's why I only play 0.1-0.2 limit).
Edit: I forgot to say I have only a small number of hands played. I don't use Holdem Manager or PT but I think I probably played 10-15K hands.
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