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griffey24
Old 10-07-2009, 06:38 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Straight Flush

Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Someone put me in line if I'm losing my mind here..

I think he gets to river with 30 hand combos he value bets with (KQ+), and then ~ 28 combos he bricks off with (XYcc,AJ,KJ,79s) and would need to bluff, most likely to win

Board: 3c Th 8c Qs 2d
lead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48% 28 hand combos { 7d7h }
Hand 1: 52% 30 hand combos { QQ+, AcKc, AQs-AJs, Ac9c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, KJs+, 9c7c, 9d7d, 9s7s, 7c6c, AQo-AJo }


If he chooses to bluff more than half the time, this should be a river c/c (lose to 30 combos, beat 14 combos). I don't think it's unreasonable to expect that kind of bluffing frequency, given the line hero took and how ppl kind of get tilted/annoyed at donk leads bs... ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
 
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