Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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So the theory is that a 55/25/1 is a ridiculous spew-monkey post-flop? Do we have a read that backs this up.
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definitely not. the af of 1 suggests he is a bit passive post flop. however, he is a bit aggro pre. his aggression is not suggesting spew, its suggesting strength to me....maybe not right away, but when i check-bomb the turn and he 3bets me, i am almost convinced that i have to be beat. however, by what, i dont have a clue. it looks like an overplayed overpair, but i dont see passives doing this too often. they tend to shut down to c/r's on the turn. i dont see 2pr in his capping range, but i do see 77. (however, there is no way i am narrowing a 55/25 down to one holding at the bottom of his possible capping range....ever. so, i am confused and the nitty side of me is seeing imaginary monsters.
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The only bad thing is that btn still has a 3bet left on the turn, which might be enough of a threat to make MP3 dump his overcards since he should realize he will be paying 3bb to see a river.
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this is the crux of the problem, and the reason i posted the HH. however, i think i see it now. it all goes back to his cap. he is severely overplaying something here that i have crushed.
but, back to the problem. BTN has a 3bet left, yes, but its going in no matter what happens. turn, river, ocean, whenever. its under 50 cents. when shorties get committed like this they keep the aggression on. i just dont know where his "commitment" line is. he likely crossed it at some point. but, his spewing range right now is incredibly light, and shouldn't intimidate ANYONE. if MP3 doesnt see this, he is incredibly blind. no matter how we got to this point, that last bet of BTN's is going in whether he does it, or i do.
i was wondering if i should have held out, sucked in MP3 and got into his stack a little in the name of commitment, also. i can get one more from him, and he possibly flips the spew bit, and raises me...allowing me to call that on the river for two more. there is NO possible draw for MP3 to be playing like this, especially with his AF of 4. i just want to entice him to call me down and soften the beat i may take from BTN.
and, the only reason i think this is because BTN is basically AI at this point. if he is ahead, and i spike a miracle A on the river, i cant get any more from BTN. so, i may rather keep MP3 in this hand since i am well ahead of whatever he is playing in this capped pot.
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