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BennyLaRue
Old 09-29-2009, 11:01 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LawDude
Here's another way to think about this. Suppose you raise your flush draw and get 2 callers. ON THAT BET, you are getting 2 to 1.
Right, so all you need to make the raise profitable is more than 33% equity. Do we have that?

Code:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   6,458,256  games     0.251 secs    25,730,103  games/sec

Board: Jd 6h 5d
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	46.859%  	44.87% 	01.99% 	       2897580 	   128711.33   { AdQd }
Hand 1: 	26.570%  	24.94% 	01.63% 	       1610875 	   105107.33   { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 	26.570%  	24.94% 	01.63% 	       1610875 	   105107.33   { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }


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47% > 33%. Raise flop...you have two opps unlikely to fold for a small bet so you're getting paid correctly.

When it comes to playing flush draws, generally, you're 33% to hit by the river with a flush draw. On non-scary boards, raising the flop is usually right. Add in the overs, the fact that the FD is to the nuts and the fact that you're in position and get to re-evaluate on the turn without it costing you money; raising is absolutely clear.

Read more about pot equity...against two opps, if you only put in a third of the money and stand to make more than a third, that's precisely where your profit comes from.
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