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LawDude
Old 09-29-2009, 09:25 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
LawDude
Quote:
Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
Quote:
Originally Posted by LawDude
Position is always a legitimate consideration (as is table image, which Chopper is concerned with but you didn't mention). But those are secondary considerations to the math
No, they are absolutely considerations that must be part of the math.

Take an extreme example: an open ended straight flush draw with overs. You have, like, 219 outs and most of them are clean. It's likely you are currently behind two opponents but are still favored to win against most holdings x2.

Code:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   7,189,686  games     0.297 secs    24,207,696  games/sec

Board: Tc 9c 5h
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	51.364%  	50.32% 	01.04% 	       3618126 	    74769.67   { QcJc }
Hand 1: 	24.318%  	22.69% 	01.63% 	       1631127 	   117268.17   { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 	24.318%  	22.69% 	01.63% 	       1631127 	   117268.17   { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
In the same position on the flop you found yourself in in the OP, are you still not raising there for value? Your implied odds go down and your fold equity vs. two opps in limit is marginal.

Your pot equity (ie. draw strength and opp ranges) MUST be a consideration here. If your only concern is implied odds, you're looking in the wrong place.

Position and free cards plays potentially reduce the investment required to see a showdown with marginal holdings. Regardless of whether or not you like them, they can be a consideration in the math.
If I think I am more than 50 percent to win the hand against Villain's ranges, a raise is academic regardless of fold equity. So yes, I will raise OESFD's unless I am up against a set or a nut flush or something.

What we are talking about is raising hands that are NOT favorites; THAT raise calculation has to be based on getting enough fold equity to make up for the cut in the implied odds.

Here's another way to think about this. Suppose you raise your flush draw and get 2 callers. ON THAT BET, you are getting 2 to 1. That's it. This means that on the flop, you are getting slightly less than what your chances are of winning the hand, and on the turn, you are getting considerably less.

Given that fact, you better have enough fold equity to make up for the insufficient odds.
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