Flush
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 536
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There is 1200+600+125*9 = 2925 of dead money in the pot. We need to call 15473 to win a total of 33871, meaning we need 45.7% equity to call. As for your stats, are those 81 hands all with him having just over 5M? Are you sure that over that 81-hand sample he wasn't just card dead for a while with maybe a few suited hands or low pairs that he limped in with? It's pretty hard to put him on a range, but let's try. If he's making a profitable short stack shove, then he could be shoving the range:
22+ A7s+ A5s-A4s ATo+ K9s+ KJo+ Q9s+ QJo J9s+ T9s
99 obviously needs to shove it in if this is the case, as we are a favorite (56%) with dead money in the pot. But maybe Villain isn't good enough to shove this wide, and is only shoving with like A8+, KJ+, and JJ-77 (I don't expect many villains to just shove QQ+ here). In this case we are still 56%. Let's assume he shoves all pairs 66+ along with a slightly tighter range of AT+, KQ. We are still slightly over 50%. Take out KQ, 77, and 66, and we're right at the cutoff point between shoving it in and folding, and we can fold since someone in the blinds could wake up with a hand.
So do you think Villain is shoving only the hands 88+,AT+ in this spot? Is he even shoving QQ+? If you were Villain and looked down at 77, what are you doing with it? What about KQs, or A9s? What about AA or KK?
I think that regardless of his stats (which are pretty much useless in this case since I can run like 10/8 over a tourney but then shove 17% of hands in Villain's spot), we have to get it in here with 99 against a 13BB stack.
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