Straight
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Catchin' fishes
Posts: 116
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nUFamn,
This is the bubble, and you need at LEAST a 60% edge to shove if you believe (and I do) that he calls more than 75% of the time. He's 3xing in case the 20K BB shoves over. He's not folding to you. I am assuming he's tighter than if the SB and BB were shorter than him, but still fairly wide. Ax and 44+ are a huge part of his range, as are any broadway. You fare well against that "any broadway" range, but if you knew he had a PP (even 2s), or Ax (even A2), I just don't see getting involved.
I have played a lot of these MTT SNGs and the bubble is where it's won and lost. People call too loose and shove too tight. You are pretty close to fold-to-the-money, and for one ragged hand where you're hoping he's raising with KJ into a BB that has him outchipped 2-1 is asking for directions to the pink lady.
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