Flush
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 414
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I don't want to spend much time in this thread focusing on this sort of stuff, but after the weekend I just had it might be worth a paragraph or two to illustrate how both positive and negative variance can impact on a session.
Saturday was an awesome day poker-wise. I could only fit in about 550 hands, but I ran super hot and finished up about $275, or about 5.5 buy-ins. Thats roughly 50ptBB/100. I got good cards, I hit flops hard, and the monies kept flowing my way. Sunday on the other hand was 750 hands of mostly pain. The cards weren't quite as good, but still came OK, but I ran $210 under EV on all-ins. Of the first five times I got my $$$ in I had the best hand four times, and roughly 42% equity the fifth time, and I lost all of them. In the end I finished down about $100 for the day.
Thats all pretty standard stuff, but the key point for me out of the whole thing is that I think I played better on Sunday than I did on Saturday. On Saturday it was my cards that crushed my opponents more than my play, and I think I missed a few opportunities to extract even more value (eg. by auto-betting my monsters too hard too early and pushing weaker hands out). On Sunday I felt like I really was on my A-game and made fewer mistakes. A lot of my reads seemed to be on the money, and as a result I managed to get away from some decent hands when behind, and to get my stack in when in front. Yet the monetary results tell a very different story.
We all know the lesson - that short term results mean f*ck all so don't tilt over a bit of variance - but I do find it helpful to be reminded of it from time to time.
There were a few spots that I found tricky, so I might try to post some hands when I have a bit more time.
(As an aside, I've never been dealt AA as many times in such a short period as I was on the weekend. I had AA/KK a total of 21 times in 1,300 hands, which is almost twice as often as I should expect to be dealt them. Even more freaky, 20 of those 21 times I had AA. Thats way more than three times as often as I should expect!)
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