Thread: KK Tilts Me
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LawDude
Old 02-25-2009, 04:50 PM     Post subject: Re: KK Tilts Me #18 (permalink)  
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Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
LawDude
Quote:
Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
Quote:
Originally Posted by Airles™
This is why I go through stretches of break-even poker because I can't lay this down when I KNOW I AM BEAT.
Then you'll make a fine limit player.

The reality is that you don't *know* you are beat. You have scraps of evidence that add up to tell a story. In the case of Hand 2 on the river, if c/c is your line, you only have to be right and win the pot 4% of the time to break even. You never have enough evidence to be more than 96% sure, so you play on, your decision made much easier by the fact that one player is all-in*.

That said, I think you went wrong on the Turn. Sandwiched between two opps, raising the SB's lead bet is a better play, imo. If you're beat, you almost want the MP to 3-bet and the SB to cap, as you can then safely get away from your hand when it is two big bets back to you. But raising also changes the dynamic of the hand as you continue to show aggression and can see how your opps respond. You hope they respond by slowing down and have exerted your maximum effort to get them to do that by raising.

Back to the river though, and also when heads-up on the turn, you will call down a lot more in limit and a significant amount more in 6-max than FR. Some of the times you're calling down, you will feel like a donkey, but mathematically, it is often the correct play. All you can do is learn the math, ignore the swings, and trust it will all turn out in your favor in the end.

* - Players who are short-stacked enough to go all-in in limit are moronic. You'll often find, absent any other reads, that this is indicative of a loose-aggro spewmonkey, who feels that his only move is to try and get all his money in in an effort to 1) push people off a hand, 2) call upon the poker gods for lottery type luck. These guys are showing down T8o as often as they are showing down a quality hand. I'm sure that isn't the case here or you wouldn't be posting it, but you'll see this over time.
I think this basically hits all of the points here, and I agree with most of it. The only thing I would differ is that I can't say I am really a fan of the reasoning that says "I am only 96 percent sure that I am beat and the pot is so big that I better stay in because I get huge pot odds on my calls". I have found that when I am reasoning like that, I am simply looking for an excuse to pour more money into a losing hand.

The reality is that I trust my reads enough that once I have narrowed a player's range based on their behavior post-flop as well as what they have done earlier at the table, I am not putting a lot of stock in the "well I am not perfectly sure that I am beat" line. That's fine if there's some reason to think the player doesn't have the hand that he is representing, but those turn and river calls cost you several bb's and they eat into the profits you make from other hands. If I have a firm conviction that I am beat and don't have any realistic outs, I am not staying in the hand unless I have some other logical reason to do so (for instance, to create a table image).

And that's the advice I'd give other players (in both NL and limit, actually)-- you have to learn to have some confidence in your reads, because developing better and more accurate reads is what is going to make you into a better poker player.

If you read the Villain as having a set, you have 2 outs against that set, so you better be getting 20-1 odds on your turn calls. Even if you factor in your 4 percent chance of overestimating Villain's hand (which I would not do), you still better be getting 12-1 or so. If you are wrong and are actually folding winning hands too often, then the leak is in your reads, not in deciding to fold when that is what your reads tell you.
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