3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 84
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If he is a good player, the only hands we can expect him to have are 44, TT, AT, AK, (as well as AQ, A4 and AA are possible). Okay cards for us are any diamond (for 9-outs, 8 outs if he has 44 or TT), a King (only if he has AT, but also gives us 4 outs if he has TT or 44), a Q or J (for 4-outs), an Ace doesn't help us much (only if we were already ahead of AQ, but also gives us outs against 44, TT.). The only really good cards are the Q or J of diamonds (for inside straight and flush draws, plus board can pair that Q or J to beat out AT).
If we were in position and got check min-raised, I could see calling because he maybe back off on the turn, but out of position I think my line is to fold. If we call, we are really only happy to see 2 cards (Q and J of diamonds), and even then we are behind. Once we check the turn, how small of a turn bet can we expect, even a small bet is 1/3 of our stack.
Folding seems like a weak play, but I say you are dominated enough of the time here that a fold cannot be a horrible play. You can say to yourself that it's only a min raise, but at this point 180 is a lot of cash equity (1/5 your stack) so to call off when you are really only hoping to hit a turn card that will give you a better draw (e.g hit running cards) or beat out two pair.
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