3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 86
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Well, I'll be honest, I check here more then I bet. Not because of the "scare card" but because I want the free card. I can get away from the river "Bluff"/bet. If you check, and anybody bets on the river, it's 5.5:1 to call and easy snap fold.
By betting on the turn, we can hope for a free showdown, but I don't want a showdown UI. Yeah, it's kind of playing our cards face up, but it's still a good way to play IMO.
As far as gut feeling overriding mathmatically correct play, I would never let my "gut" get in the way of a 7.5:1 call with a nut FD. If your gut tells you that even if you hit you're beat is, IMO, a great reason to play scared and fold hands that you should be playing.
Having said that about gut feelings, there is a difference between allowing your gut to dictate you're play and letting you're read dictate you're play.
I say we differentiate these because when you're gut say ssomething and you have no basis for it, then Math is the way to go. If you get involved in a hand were your read is "This guy never bluffs" Then you shouldn't start believeing he's bluffing because you're in the hand.
In this particular situation, I don't think the CR indicates a boat, it indicates a TP (on the flop) that hit trips on the turn. His call on the flop suggested that he had a hand and wanted to see some other cards. Had he had two pair on the flop, why wouldn't he CR you then. SB has already commited to your bet, and a CR there could get 2 more sb's in the pot assuming you're not on an over pair and you three bet him (which I would do with AA, KK, QQ).
If he's on a hand like KJ and hit the trips, then you're FD is still good and a call is warrented by the pot odds...there are a lot of hands that you beat out there that even a great player would play in the exact same situation and J9 and a PP that hit a set on the flop are just a very few of them. I say you don't play scared, call his turn CR and see the river.
UI on the river, because of your read, you'll be getting abour 9.5:1 on the almost assured river bet, but you're floating A high at that point and I think you can let it go (I'd let it go without a read UI and getting 10:1...just one of those things, I don't mind calling if I think I'm beat but I have a hand...Ahigh isn't a hand...not with this board.)...
That's just my take on the situation.
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