4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Deventer
Posts: 1,512
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Having some stats or reads on a villain is crucial to continue the hand after the flop 3bet.
"Villain seems TAGish" is a bit too vague, but often you have to make assumptions.
Here is some analysis on possible flop 3bet ranges:
33/77/maybe some AQ/maybe some air - I think this is the standard range for a standard TAG here as he has no FD's in his range. Without assuming villain has a lot air in his range, it's a muck...you more or less have a bluff catcher.
Also note that having i.e. AA against this range it isn't much better if you assume villain won't b/3b AQ.
same as above + 87s-JTs - Villain has a FD half the time he has a set, so you still can't call, unless his air range is big.
same as first + AJs, 54s-JTs Villain has an 8 out draw as often as a set. This is still a possible range, although slightly looser then standard TAG.
You can go wider with possible FD's if you want, but villain being OOP I can't see it being that wide.
Based on your view of villain this should be a pretty easy flop fold unless you think he's raising a lot of air, which imo is very unlikely considering his line and betsizes. With the turn completing the flush that is an even easier fold.
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