4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Waiting in the shadows ...
Posts: 3,777
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pretty sure you don't want him to fold 5th
I didn't realize the action. bet call is way better than check bet call.
I'm assuming these villains are terrible, so I'm raising 3rd, normally betting 4th, I may check since I wtf missed. Lead 5th, so what if he doesn't think you have a pair of Qs (or cares).
so you have 7 outs.
know 12 cards, so 52-12= 40
(40-7)/40 = .825
6ht street
(38-7)/38 = .816
7th
(36-7)/36 = .801
.825*.816*.801 = 54%
so you brick slightly more than 1/2 the time. This assumes you need the straight to win, which is no way. Bet 5th.
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