Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,405
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First about not c-betting. Hawkfan79 hit it perfectly: this guy is going to bet into us a major portion of the time regardless of whether or not he hit the flop in any way, shape, or form. If we c-bet, then he doesn't give us that value with hands that totally suck here.
Something you might not have thought about is the times that he raises our c-bet. We're going to be out of position for the big money streets, and it's just as likely he has 76s as 54s. This puts us in a spot of making unnecessary difficult decisions, something that we aim to avoid.
Now about the river.
First off, note that any argument against raising on the river that involves the rake is incorrect since the rake is already capped on the river (it caps at $3 when the pot reaches $60).
Now, for everyone wondering about the check/call on the river, consider the following:
There's 1 ace and 3 eights out there, so that's 3 possible hand combinations for A8.
There's 1 possible hand combination for 66.
So that's 4 hand combinations that beat us, and he's always showing these down against a bet or raise all-in.
Now what are the likely hands that have a 6 in them? 76s, 65s, 86s, 64s stand out.
There's 2 possible hand combinations for 76s.
There's 2 possible hand combinations for 65s.
There's 2 possible hand combinations for 86s.
There's 2 possible hand combinations for 64s.
That's 8 hand combinations that we beat, but how often is he going to bet these on the river, and THEN call a shove? Will it be the 50% required to make betting the better of the two? A bet on the river with a 6 would be horrible beyond words, especially over-betting the pot on an apparent value bet trying to get some value from KK-99. This makes the bet very unlikely if villain has a 6.
Villain might be really loose and really aggressive, but we can't just assume he's a total retard who is going to over-bet the pot on the river when it's obvious the only hands that call beat him.
Now euphoricism suggested a post-oak bluff, and I think he might be just meaning to make a small bet in hopes of inducing a bluff, but that's not really a post-oak bluff if my understanding is correct.
Chopper, good idea on trying to get value from a 6, but that line of thinking is best applied with leading the river, imo.
badgers, thanks for pointing out that I'm stupid. 
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