4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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Ok, so I've been crunching some numbers in a fairly random way...
If you fold you will have 18123 chips worth $27.70 of the prize pool
If you shove and he folds you have 20823 chips worth $28.98 of the prize pool
If he calls your shove and you win you will have 38146 chips worth $36 of the prize pool
If he calls your shove and you lose you will have 0 chips worth $15 of the prize pool
Assume villain to call 20%....
80% of the time we get $28.98= 2318.4 (28.98x80)
11% of the time we get $15 =165
9% of the time we get $35.53 =319.77
$28.03 (All totals/100 for our EV)
Assume 30%
70% of the time it's $29.98 = 2028.6
15.9% of the time it's $15 = 238.5
14.1% of the time it's $35.53 = 501
$27.68
So, unless opp is calling about 30% (55+,A2s+,K5s+, Q7s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,) a shove is good.
I really dislike raise/folding with this size stack because we will often be restolen from very wide, especially with OPs read, but not wide enough to allow calling. Losing 1/4 of your stack in that way isn't great.
It's close, but I would shove.
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