Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 259
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ash256
Is it possible to balance in such a way that our opponent is making a -EV move whether he calls or whether he folds?
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Very good question, in game theory what you are talking about is "the indifference method". You make your strategy unexploitable by making a rational opponent indifferent to calling or folding. An example would be making a pot sized bet on the river with a nut hand but for every 2 nut hands you throw in one stone cold bluff. Since the probability that you are bluffing is 1/3 calling and folding give him the same EV, making him "indifferent" to calling or folding. Either way he loses whatever money he has already invested in the pot in the long run.
An interesting thing about that is that although he has the same EV either way( and lower variance when he folds ) his proper counter-strategy is to call you half of the time. This makes you indifferent to bluffing when you have nothing. If he calls all the time obviously you don't bluff, but if he folds more than 1/2 the time you should bluff more.
This is overly simplified I know and poker has several betting rounds with more options than calling or folding for your opponents( this is why calling stations lose ). Google poker and game theory if this kind of stuff interests you and you might be surprised at which bracelet winner(and his father) has done extensive research in this field.
btw: Great post ISF
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