Thread: Flush Odds
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sunnyday
Old 06-02-2007, 09:03 AM #45 (permalink)  

Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 23
sunnyday
have found the probability for flush from 2 suited by river confirmed to be 6.4% with many sources.
also i have found the reason why that calculation by zenbitz dont come out with that number.

the 7flush calculation is correct:
(11*10*9*8*7) / (50*49*48*47*46) =0.02181%

for 6flush you had the right idea but missed a term:
(you suggested: 5 * ( 11*10*9*8) / (50*49*48*47)
should be: 5 * (39*11*10*9*8) / (50*49*48*47*46) = 0.6074 %

similar problem with 5flush
2 more terms and it comes to:
10 * (39*38*11*10*9) / (50*49*48*47*46) = 5.771 %

total: 0.02181% + 0.6074 % + 5.771 % = 6.4%

voila
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