4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Maine
Posts: 1,836
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1. The range of a 19/11 for calling your PFR is probably going to be something like broadways and pps and maybe some random connectors a small percentage of the time. On the flop you are probably getting called by broadways that have a queen and a decent amount of PPs and are most likely getting raised by sets but I guess there is a small possibility that they could still have one. On the turn, getting your 2nd bet called narrows their range primarily to those broadways with a queen. If they had a set and didnt raise the flop, I would imagine theyd be raising here but the board is fairly draw so thats a possibility. They arent calling a 2nd bet with something like 66 or 88 [or lower] and even something like JJ is unlikely but it is a possibility. On the river when they bet I would say this is going to be a queen a huge percentage of the time because nothing would make sense for them to get there as a bluff. If they somehow made it that far with TT, they arent shoving for value if they are solid and even if they arent they most likely wouldnt be doing that. I think this is a standard fold as I just dont think a player who is 19/11 is going to be nearly ever making it that far on just a bluff.
2. Your raise sizes are pretty bad here. PF thats a tiny raise even when opening [but not always bad], with 3 in before you, I think you need to be making this much bigger. On the flop, you definitely need to be making a much bigger raise especially in a multiway pot with that wet of a board, thats probably the biggest mistake. UTG could have a ton of stuff here, but the BB cold calling a flop raise is pretty suspicious. Do you really think theyd do that with a draw? This spot does suck a lot but I think folding is gross and would probably just shove and hope to suckout or to somehow be ahead. How bad is this thinking?
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