Flush
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Kennedy Space Center, FL
Posts: 283
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
We gotta raise the river. AA calls, AK calls. No reason to be scared of that flush card.
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Well, I guess you have a point.
With his line, call me "Mr. Too-Much-Credit" but I am thinking opp has AA, KK, AK for the most part.
Statistically speaking that would be AA 22% KK 22% AK 56%. But his line has me leaning even more towards AA or KK. So I move those numbers to AA 30%, KK 25%, AK 45%.
Excluding the flush possibility, we are looking at:
- AA 30% of the time. opp could call or 3-bet our river raise, either way we win. ~ +1.5bb value from river raise.
- KK 25% of the time opp will definitely 3-bet us. -2.0bb from river raise.
- AK 45% of the time opp would probably just call the river raise. ~ +1.2bb value from river raise.
TOTALS: +0.49bb
I'm still kind of worried about the flush because on the rare occasion that it does happen, it is definitely going to cause us two more bb than if we would have just called. But you are probably right, it's not going to happen often enough to turn the river raise into -EV.
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