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Originally Posted by drmcboy
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Just be prepared for LOTS of variance at the $6.50s
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I assume you say this because people call with bad hands and draw out. Is there really any evidence that increases $$ variance ? Sure you lose more big pots, but you win more too. I think variance gets worse as you move up precisely because people STOP calling with bad hands and you are forced into playing more hands (flips, more open shoving with bad hands UTG, etc,etc). |
I've got no hard evidence of this. I guess it's just because it's harder to put people on hands preflop because they call your raises with all sorts of random hands so even if your AK hits TPTK on the flop, if you're up against 4 donkeys who might have all sorts of crazy draws/middle pair/bottom pair, the chance of it holding up is just that much lower. Sure, when you win you win many more chips but the chance of winning an all-in on the flop is lower:
Code:
Board: Kd 9c 8c
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 33.6585 % 33.66% 00.00% { AsKh }
Hand 2: 21.5854 % 21.59% 00.00% { JhTh }
Hand 3: 05.7317 % 05.73% 00.00% { Ad9s }
Hand 4: 39.0244 % 39.02% 00.00% { Ac2c }