4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Watching the kids
Posts: 1,603
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Thanks for running the numbers TLR. I think your 15% assumption about someone making a play at me is probably good.
So what it looks like is that in terms of expected chip value, the play is virtual dead-even. However it's taking a 0 EV chip play for my tournament life, when I could just continue on surviving if I fold, with M = 11.
Also, you're assuming that if I push over his reraise, that JGB will call. He probably would given the pot odds, but just wanted to point that out assumption as well.
BTW, I don't mean to be one of those players that defends a bad play. It's just that I don't think it's necessarily true that I need to decide if I'm going to the felt with this hand. I've got plenty of chips to use to extract information, which is what I'm doing with an UTG raise as opposed to a limp/fold. I can be a lot more confident that my fold is good if my raise is reraised than if my limp is raised. My philosophy comes down to the fact that I think I still have chips to play with post flop.
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