Straight
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: NZ
Posts: 136
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Originally Posted by arkitekton
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Hand 1. The preflop smoothcall is fine once in a while. As you can stand to make the 1sb back most of the time.
I think you should cap the turn.
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ROFL--Believe me, I wanted to! I would up giving villain credit for being somewhat sane. I mean, given that I raised from ep1, got check raised on the flop, and STILL raised him on the turn, could I have LESS than AK (and it wouldn't make sense for me to even raise the turn on this betting with just AK)? Therefore, of course, he should be better than AK to bet the way he's betting, and "has" to have, at least, an unlikely AA or, most likely, KK--in which latter case I'm dead. |
He is statistically more likely to have AK than any other hand here.
KQ, AA and KK are the other options. Even if you rule out KQ completely, you're still twice as likely to be ahead.
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Hand 2. I hate the preflop call and I think you should bet the river.
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There aren't any arguments in these assertions to which I can usefully respond.
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Being OOP, you'll be unable to make up the lost preflop revenue postflop. You may have lost out on the majority of 2sb (1BB) preflop if he has a hand like AK, QQ, JJ or TT.
As for postflop, the river A just makes it less likely for him to hold an Ace and therefore he will hold a worse hand than yours the majority of the time. Considering you've been calling since the flop, he will most often check behind his worse hands and bet his better ones. So unless you can trust your read and are check/folding, you should be betting this river. There's too much value not to.
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