Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: canada
Posts: 269
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Yup. You're puking chips here.
I doubt I'd even bet the turn, let alone call the raise, LET ALONE 3-BET. If we revisit the three flop calls, I have trouble imagining that between them the pack of villains don't have at least one of: an Ace, a King, or a 3. Once the Ace hits you're very likely to be playing for at best half the pot. Worst case, obviously, is that you miss a bet from a fairly unlikely pair of pocket spades, where someone hung around with undercards and a backdoor flush draw, or from a smaller pocket pair that will pay off to a turn (and, presumably, a river) bet. Once the Ace hits though, is anyone with, say, 99, having heard you raise pf, going to call down? You have a better shot picking up a bet from them on the river after checking the turn (which may also gain if your hypothetical turn check lets someone pair an undercard on the river).
I think it's a LOT more likely you're going to get check raised on this turn than you're going to get a caller with a worse hand, and you can assume anyone with an Ace will surely check raise here. All things considered, I think it's a lot more likely one of the villains has an Ace or better than having two spades (and then misses the flush draw).
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