Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 49
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jackvance
- Some of these outs might not be in the deck anymore. They might be in your opponent's hand, or in the hands of other players that already folded. So maybe you'll be chasing a 2-edged straight and think you have 36% to win, but in reality all but one of your outs are in the hands of people that already folded!
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I am certainly not the one to comment here, as I am not a math-wiz and a newish poker player, however..
I am pretty sure the fact that a card may have already been dealt, in and of itself, does not effect counting your outs. Your outs could also be at the bottom of the deck, but you don't know that either. So, in the absence of information to the contrary, you must (from a statistical and probability standpoint) consider all cards you cannot see as being possibly the next card to be dealt.
So, when you have 5 outs after the flop, you can't see 47 cards so your odds of hitting one of those cards on the next card is about 10%.
Now, if you KNOW other cards.. maybe someone folded and showed their cards, I guess you could adjust your calculation then, somehow.
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