Straight
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 130
|
|
What do we think of SB's line? Should he have just called? Should he he not have led the turn?
Bear with me here as I just reread SSH and am trying get a full handle on all the concepts.
On the surface it looks like he has a straight draw and a flush draw which is 15 outs. But with the action on the turn, I have to smell a set (although my thinking maybe tainted because I already know about the set of sixes). Of course if he is a donk then he may not haved a clue and probably doesn't recoginize that some of his outs are tainted. He doesn't have the nut flush if he hits and if he hits his straight some of his outs will complete a flush and/or a boat. His outs:
4 Q's - Qd completes a diamond flush = 3 0uts
4 7's - 7d completes a diamond flush = 3 0uts
7 hearts - 6, 8 complete a boat = 5 outs
That's only 11 "clean" outs which I would drop to 10 (a 3.6-1 dog) because he won't have the nuts on his flush,. When the betting gets back to him the pot is 17 bb with probably 4 more bets probably getting called on the turn and potentially 3 bets on the river. That's potentially 24 bb for 2 bets to call or 3 to cap.
|