Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 65
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I would push. You very likely have the guy dominated. And if he turns over KJs? Who cares it's a 60/40 not a coinflip. You probably can't get him to throw away pockets either. But that's nearly a coinflip (for small pairs, 45/55 for big pairs). AND he has a 5.9% chance of being dealt a pocket at all, the push is definitely a good play (combined with your read of course).
Harringtonize this sucker: *All numbers are subject to rounding
Ax or Kx 13.5%
pp 6%
Chance he's holding Ax/Kx vs. pp = 2 : 1
His starting hand =
Ax 36.8%. you are 75% to win, ev= 27.6%
AK 3.2% You are 30% to win, ev= .96 lets call it 1%
Kx 40% you are 65% to win, ev= 26%
under pp 19% you are 47% to win, ev= 9%
over pp (AA,KK,QQ) 1%? you are 26% to win, ev= .26%
ev of this play? About 63.8% for you to win. (27.6+.96+26.+9.26)
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63.8% of the time you are 80% to win = 51.04%
[.51*$100] = $51 +40 (you already won this $40) = $91
36.2% of the time you are out = $40 (this is the $40 from above, it's yours anyway, see?)
total ev = $131
If you call
hit the flop (and get all the money in and win the hand)
13.2% * 80% to win = $10.56 +40 = $50.56
miss and fold 87% = 37.8% to win (3030/8000) = $37.80 + 40 = 77.80
total ev = 128.36
131 - 128.36 = +2.64
2.04/22 = +12% kind close to 13.8% there's room to find it in there I'm sure.
Push.
**If this is incorrect please tell me now, and save Cpaz from my lunacy.
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