3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Escondido, CA
Posts: 105
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From a pure ICM standpoint it is an obvious push, the numbers give us that ..
I guess what I am saying is that if you push you are either..
Called and win
called and lose
win blinds
If you bet...
reraised all in and call and win
reraised all in and call and lose
reraised all in and fold (unlikely to fold in this situation of course)
win blinds
be called and be raised all in on the flop and call and win
be called and be raised all in on the flop and call and lose
(the board could give them some action or they believe you will fold to pressure or you may flop some good cards as well)
be called and checked to on the flop where you push and they fold
be called and checked to on the flop where you push and are called and lose
be called and checked to on the flop where you push and called and win
check/check (either by stupidity, knowing you are beat, or some weird uneeded trap play.)
There are other ways it could go down, but I guess I am just trying to say that if you push..you eliminate so many other variables.
If you want action...sure then raise. But in doing so you are opening yourself up for more ways to lose.
Plus look at the stacks...they would be calling most of their stacks to a push..something most people wouldn't like doing with a coinflip. And if they had a monster they would be playing this hand anyways.
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