I rarely,if ever, get pms
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 4,524
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by CoxhEd
I dont like the call of the reraise, to me he is defiantly holding a higher pocket pair or he hit his set. You should have laid it down when you found out where he stood, IMO.
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In hindsight - of course I don't also. But I'm really trying to focus on my decision making here - not the outcome. He definitely is being defiant that's for sure, but.... let's assume he is not bluffing. And assume he definitely has a PP. There's a 4/13 chance that he hit his set or has AA giving me only 4 outs; if he has 44 I only have 8 outs; 66 - I only have 6 outs; 77-TT - I have 10 outs; JJ-KK - I have 7 outs.
4,200 into an 18,700 pot means I need to have an 18% shot for this to be even money (4200/22900). I do think I need to lean much more on the fact that I need to hit by the turn not the river, cuz he'll probably bet out again on the turn. Because of implied odds and what not I say that means I need at least 8 outs to make this call. So if I knew he had the set of course I woulda folded. But I didn't and I don't think I coulda known that.
4/13 I have 4 outs; 4/13 I have 10 outs; 1/13 I have 8 outs; 1/13 I have 6 outs; 3/13 I have 7 outs. Add em all together and I average only 7 outs. So yeah, considering that I really needed closer to 10 true outs to make this play profitable, and I only had that less than 1/3 of the time a fold was probably the best move. Too bad - I didn't have 5 minutes to think it out like I just did.
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