Full House
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Drowning in prosperity
Posts: 1,279
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Originally Posted by Room
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Originally Posted by koolmoe
Is calling a bet in a 12 bet pot with only a gutshot draw a bad idea?
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Not at all. But your statement fails to acknowledge that you've already put in 2 bets (by c/ring) with, very likely, the 2nd best hand. |
The fact that it's two bets only changes the pot odds calculation, which I have fully considered in my analysis. The fact that my hand is likely second best is precisely what makes this a semibluff. I'm not putting in two bets with the idea that I'm ahead, though it is remotely possible.
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Originally Posted by Room
Not to mention, we are heads up. If our opponent calls, we are getting 1-1 on our money. As opposed to a 3 way pot where we can get 2-1 from callers.
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Tell me this: what am I getting on my money if my opponent folds? I'm not looking for a call, so what I am getting on my money if I am called is irrelevant, except insomuch as it reduces the cost of my semibluff.
Bottom line, there are lots of hands I want folding here, and many of them will if I check/raise. If he calls or three-bets, I still have outs to win the pot.
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Originally Posted by Room
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Originally Posted by koolmoe
Just because something doesn't work the majority of the time doesn't mean it's a bad play.
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Can you explain this? If c/r only works here less than 50% of the time, how is that "not a bad play"? |
This question makes me wonder if you understand the concept of bluffing at all. Even a stone cold check-raise bluff only has to work less than 25% of the time to be successful (i.e., +EV).
I have already mentioned that the bluff component of the check raise is equivalent to about 2/3 of a bet, and you stand to win 6.5 bets if it works. As a result, you only need a fold about 9% of the time. It doesn't have to work very often to be profitable.
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Originally Posted by Room
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Originally Posted by koolmoe
Look at it this way: you're not folding the turn, so you're putting in one bet here no matter what. What's bad about investing a little bit more in hopes of inducing a fold, especially when you'll get that bet back 1/3 of the time after you make your draw?
In my experience, you're much more likely to get a fold with a check/raise than by leading the turn.
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Based on your first sentence, your opponent shouldn't be folding any reasonable hand either since the pot will lay him proper odds. |
That's just wrong. Your check/raise tells him that he has to call two more bets to win the pot since he'll expect a river bet. That's two bets to win 8.5 bets, so a lot of mediocre hands will have incentive to fold. Ace high, KJ, JJ, or pocket pairs 66-99 will have a hard time calling the check/raise. Heck, KQ, QJ, might even fold based on the T, which would be huge. You have to consider the fact that your opponent will give you credit for a stronger hand if you check raise.
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