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Quote:

Originally Posted by doggz

Quote:

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Quote:

Originally Posted by doggz

Well this is simpler then you might think, for what you are asking.

First of all you need to know the chance of him flopping better then you (2 pair or better) which I believe is 3.8%? Then find out the chance that you also flop 2pair or better and subtract it. This will be the % of time he has you beat.

For simplicity, if we just say every time he flops 2pair or better you are beaten (which isn't the case) then you will be beaten about 4% of the time (if my memory serves me correctly)

So 1 out of 25 times you are beaten on the flop. So you just need to get in 5BB of his stack to make it EV+, which is significantly less then you might think. I'm sure some of my numbers are wrong, but the logic is there.

And this is against any non-pair hand? Sexy.

The reason I'm trying to figure out the exact number is becuase I was always using 1/5th. If I get 1/5th of my stack in preflop with AA/KK, I'm commited to just about anything (except for A flops with KK). Just trying to figure out if I've been walking in the dark or accurate on my stance.

-'rilla

I don't remember the exact chance of flopping 2 pair or better, but I think it is 3.8. I do know it isn't very high. And of course almost any hand not 2pair or better isn't beating you obviously. About the only hand he could flop that isn't 2pair or better and still beating you is top pair with the straightflush draw. Someone can come refine the exact odds but that's a lot of work when the answer is rather clear.