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Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
hand 67 (final hand).....ohhhhhhhh yea baby !!....lol 7/2os come up large against pocket 5's.....I have him outstacked 3 to 1...what the fuck its a free chance to take him out.....I lose here and we are heads up evenly stacked.....power play pure and simple. I'd do it again in a heartbeat
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Lets first assert:
We want to maximize our chance to win.
To maximize our chance to win we want to maximize our chance to get chips from him.
This isn't a "freeroll", if he doubles through us we've given up an advantage.
Any disagreement here?
Lets consider:
72o wins 35% against a random hand
But he won't call with a random hand...
72o wins 32% vs AKo
72o wins 28% vs 55
72o wins 11% vs 88
Folding has an expection of 0
Stealing gets us 1300
Lets say we win 30% of the time if he calls, then we expect to win (7120 * 2 * .3) 4272 at a cost of 6670. An expection of -2398
Let s be our steal % and solve for the break even point
1300 * s + (-2398 * (1-s)) > 0
1300s -2398 + 2398s > 0
3698s > 2398
s > 0.64
He must fold more than 64% of the time for that steal to have a positive expection.
Hmmm... interesting...
I still think it's a pass but it's really close.
edit2: I can't fucking do math today. Closer than I thought...
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