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When to muck TPTK

  
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freechus9
Post Posted: Mon, 07 Jul 2008, 1:09pm    Post subject: When to muck TPTK Reply with quote
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This is one thing that I can't seem to wrap my head around. Can someone explain to me what I should be doing?

100NL

You have AcKd in MP. You open raise to $4, complete unknown in the SB calls.

Flop: AsJs6s Pot: 9.50

Checked to you, you lead for $7, and he raises to $16.

What do you do?



Consider,

Flop: AsJc6d Pot: $9.50

Same actions. What to do?


Now,

Flop: AsJs6c Pot: $9.50

" ".



Also, how does this change if we are IP and get our lead bet raised the same amount?

Sorry if this is ultranoob but I don't get it.
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dalecooper
Post Posted: Mon, 07 Jul 2008, 1:27pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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Hand 1 - I'd just fold, you don't have a spade, don't have a good sense of his range, and therefore don't have a good concept of your own equity. Absent a read I fold. If I knew the other player was aggressive enough to be testing with a high spade and a pair, or something like Ks Qx, I'd want to play it out. (i.e. call and make his life difficult, since he's out of position.) But vs. an unknown, let it go I think.

Hand 2 - call and reevaluate the turn. Your hand is good but not the nuts. Seek a cheap showdown. If he follows up the checkraise with a big turn bet, I'd consider just letting it go, and figure there's a good chance he has AJ or 66 (since the board is so dry, few other holdings make sense). If he checks the turn, I'd figure he may have AQ or AT, and value bet accordingly (might even check behind and try to get paid on the river - that's fun to do against a thinking player).

Hand 3 - gas gas gas. Too many draws and potential for mischief; your equity against an unknown's range is good & you don't want him drawing for free.

If he has position on me and the raise isn't a check-raise, I weight slightly more towards calling or raising in all cases.
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CorbinDallas
Post Posted: Mon, 07 Jul 2008, 3:04pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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i agree with hand 1 and 3.

don't you want to win with TPTK on the flop most of the time?

i'm not at 100 NL... maybe its different there. but when you are check raised by an average abc player whose playing 1 or 2 tables at a time for an hour or 2, 4 nights a week... TPTK is no good. thats how those guys play something better than TPTK on the flop... check raise.
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dalecooper
Post Posted: Tue, 08 Jul 2008, 7:32am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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First, this isn't an average ABC player necessarily - we know nothing about him. Which means his check-raising range is wider than you think, especially depending on the flop texture. The 2nd example is a very dry board; there's no flush draw and just a couple of gutshot straight draws possible. So check-raising there could mean one of a few things:

1. I have a set or maybe AJ and I'd like to get the money in.
2. I have a pair of aces, and since this flop connected with me I'm going to guess it didn't connect with you, and try to take this down now.
3. I am taking a gamble that you don't have an ace and don't like to see one - so this is a bluff, please fold.

What's interesting about it is that a check-raise on a fairly dry, ace-high flop from a lot of players specifically could mean that they DON'T have better than TPTK. If you had a set of sixes, say, check-raising there is playing pretty fast and tipping your hand strength very early, when you really don't have to. AJ is the same thing, and since the flop hit you so hard, it becomes more likely that your opponent has some other hand (like a medium or big pocket pair, that would be scared of the ace). There are good strategic reasons to check-raise a strong hand there anyway, but the fact that the board is not dangerous means that a lot of players would NOT check-raise their really good hands, hoping to get a 2nd barrel out of you on the turn before they really show their strength. There's a reason the check-call, check-raise line is so infamous as a "set line."

What I'm arguing is this: since we don't have a read on this guy and the flop is unexciting, the check-raise could mean a whole lot of things. I don't mind calling his smallish raise to see how he proceeds on the turn. That might be a leak, and admittedly I play 50 NL myself, not 100; but I definitely feel like there's more check-raising going on than just "I have your one pair beat," especially on the flop. (Turn and river is a different story.)
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jyms
Post Posted: Tue, 08 Jul 2008, 8:43am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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You fold when you no longer have control of the hand, or the pot. I have found without reads, folding to a flop raise is not ever completely wrong with TPTK. Don't believe, filter and have a look at your winrate on hands where your Cbets were raised and you continued.

This is all based on $100NL and under.
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CorbinDallas
Post Posted: Tue, 08 Jul 2008, 9:26am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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yeah i guess absent of a read i'm assuming he's the type of player i described.

IMO... those guys get so excited with better than TPTK that they think "check raise".
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dalecooper
Post Posted: Tue, 08 Jul 2008, 9:35am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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In this example we are in position with a lot of money behind. I don't think that qualifies as "not in control of the hand or the pot," despite the fact that he put in the last raise. I also think folding TPTK to every flop raise in an increasingly aggressive game (meaning lower stakes online) is a mistake. If nothing else, continuing past the first raise occasionally will discourage aggressive players from bluff-raising your c-bets.

As far as winrate in those spots, I don't think it proves much unless you are isolating down to specific situations. "Check-raised by an unknown on a dry board" is one kind of situation that probably has its own expectation, quite apart from, say, "position-raised by a known megadonk on a drawy board" or "check-raised by a known supernit on a drawy board." Reads or lack thereof should determine how we act, along with position and board texture. I don't subscribe to any philosophy that says you should always do X when Y happens, unless that Y is a very detailed scenario. In this example, I like to call. But if the board is all one suit or is AJT instead of AJ6, that changes things considerably and I'd probably fold it, because an unknown's hand range leans more toward having me beat.
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CorbinDallas
Post Posted: Tue, 08 Jul 2008, 11:17am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($14)
UTG ($43)
MP ($49.35)
Hero ($42.50)
SB ($19.20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, K.
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, SB calls $0.75, BB calls $0.60.

Flop: ($2.55) K, 7, 8 (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $0.25, Hero raises to $2, SB raises to $6, BB folds, Hero raises to $20.8, SB calls $12.35 (All-In).

Turn: ($41.95) Q (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($41.95) 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $39.50

he had 777
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dalecooper
Post Posted: Tue, 08 Jul 2008, 11:22am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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You're right, that settles it - always fold TPTK on any board no matter what when check-raised.
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CorbinDallas
Post Posted: Tue, 08 Jul 2008, 11:40am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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LOL. thats not what i'm trying to say dude.

obviously there is no 100% rule all the time. i don't mean to come across that way. we're just talking.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($27.30)
BB ($29.85)
UTG ($25.10)
MP ($35.95)
Hero ($36.55)
Button ($25)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, K.
1 fold, MP raises to $0.5, Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, BB calls $1.75, MP calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6.10) Q, J, 9 (3 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $4, BB raises to $14.5, MP raises to $25, Hero folds, BB raises to $27.85 (All-In), MP calls $2.85.

Turn: ($65.80) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($65.80) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $65.80

Results in white below:
BB has Qd Qh (three of a kind, queens).
MP has Qs Js (two pair, queens and jacks).
Outcome: BB wins $65.80.
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CorbinDallas
Post Posted: Tue, 08 Jul 2008, 11:50am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($25.20)
BB ($47.40)
Hero ($23.20)
MP ($24.30)
CO ($47.70)
Button ($25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, K.
Hero raises to $0.85, 1 fold, CO calls $0.85, Button calls $0.85, SB calls $0.75, 1 fold.

Flop: ($3.65) 5, 9, 6 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.7, CO raises to $8, Button folds, SB folds, Hero raises to $22.35 (All-In), CO calls $14.35.

Turn: ($48.35) T (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($48.35) Q (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $48.35

Results in white below:
Hero has Kd Kh (one pair, kings).
CO has 8c Ac (high card, ace).
Outcome: Hero wins $48.35.
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dalecooper
Post Posted: Tue, 08 Jul 2008, 11:59am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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Fair enough. I just think this topic is a little too broad for hand histories to cover much ground, unless we go into like a hundred of them. One thing I'll point out is that all three of these are three-way action, not heads up to the flop, which makes a very big difference in the type of hands that are usually getting check-raised. Also, your 3rd hand here is a great example of someone getting aggro with a combo draw, which is why always mucking on the flop might not be wise (depending on the board texture). Raising those hands is so common now that it has become really hard to fold a good overpair on drawy boards like that - your equity is usually pretty high, whereas a few years ago it would have been lower because not that many people played draws that way.
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jyms
Post Posted: Tue, 08 Jul 2008, 12:16pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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dalecooper wrote:
Also, your 3rd hand here is a great example of someone getting aggro with a combo draw, which is why always mucking on the flop might not be wise (depending on the board texture). Raising those hands is so common now that it has become really hard to fold a good overpair on drawy boards like that - your equity is usually pretty high, whereas a few years ago it would have been lower because not that many people played draws that way.
actually, on this hand he is behind quite a bit. Most people at $50NL and up with any skill know that C/R combo draws is a good play since your rartely behind if at all and if you have as little as %10FE your usually a huge favorite. Even a FD here has 36% equity against his hand, and C/R flops with no overcards surely will give you enough fold equity to cover most.
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dalecooper
Post Posted: Tue, 08 Jul 2008, 12:27pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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jyms wrote:
actually, on this hand he is behind quite a bit.


He's behind 55/45, but his pot odds are better than that. Also his equity against various other similar hands:

Tc 8c - 53/47 in favor of the kings
Tc 9c - 51/49 against
Jc 9c or Qc 9c - 50/50
Kc 9c - 57/43 in favor of the kings
Ac 9c - 52/48 against

And if he has a club blocker (if one of his kings is a club) his equity increases a couple % on every one of these.

Quote:
Most people at $50NL and up with any skill know that C/R combo draws is a good play since your rartely behind if at all and if you have as little as %10FE your usually a huge favorite. Even a FD here has 36% equity against his hand, and C/R flops with no overcards surely will give you enough fold equity to cover most.


I'm well aware of that, which is exactly why I am arguing that you shouldn't always fold overpairs on these kinds of flops. Against a player who plays combo draws hard and fast almost always, you should stop folding your overpairs to their checkraises on these kinds of boards; your equity against their range is much higher than if they were a nit that only check-raises sets and nut hands. And since an increasing number of players at 50 NL and 100 NL play combo draws this way, overpairs are harder to get away from, even though your equity vs. their range will frequently be below 50%. With the pot odds usually involved after a pre-flop raise and pot-sized (or close to it) c-bet, you probably can't fold on these kinds of flops against an aggressive, decent player. If the flop was dry and draw-less, you can start thinking about folding.
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CorbinDallas
Post Posted: Tue, 08 Jul 2008, 10:17pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($25.55)
BB ($25.30)
Hero ($33.75)
MP ($11.55)
CO ($8.70)
Button ($28.05)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, Q.
Hero raises to $0.85, 2 folds, Button calls $0.85, SB calls $0.75, 1 fold.

Flop: ($2.80) A, 6, 9 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.35, Button folds, SB raises to $4.7, Hero raises to $32.9 (All-In), SB calls $20 (All-In).

Turn: ($60.40) 6 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($60.40) 3 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $52.20

Results in white below:
SB has 9c 9h (full house, nines full of sixes).
Hero has As Qs (two pair, aces and sixes).
Outcome: SB wins $52.20.


gas gas gas.

actually this guy was very passive. he wouldn't do this without a made hand. bad read by me... shoulda folded.... poorly played all around by me.

but... check raised by a set again.
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CorbinDallas
Post Posted: Tue, 08 Jul 2008, 10:57pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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does this count?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

CO ($29.85)
Button ($22.30)
SB ($23.45)
BB ($8)
UTG ($26.55)
Hero ($26.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP with T, K.
2 folds, CO raises to $0.85, 1 fold, SB calls $0.75, BB calls $0.60.

Flop: ($2.55) 8, Q, J