MTT question

(Apologies, don't have the hand history)

In a $5 PP 3table MTT. Top 5 pays, 7 left. I'm in 4th in chips with 2.5K I'm UTG + 1 dealt QQ. Blinds 200/400. Raise to 1200. Everyone folds to SB(big stack of 7K, more than double the next guy) who raises me AI. Don't really have read on the guy. Would anyone fold this and try to sneak into top 5 ? Folding would make me small stack with blinds about to move up in a few minutes. QQ seems to be my bad luck hand.

On the plus side, I've won my last 2 $10 SnGs after a killer bad streak. Remembering to continue being patient after losing a few hands early is helping.

(Oh yeah. SB had AA. Got no help and I'm out 7th).

you need to calculate your expected values in these situations.

but for your particular case, you're already pot committed, so you should probably call the all in. with blinds so high, you can only afford 3 or 4 more blinds, and the bigger stacks will bully you to try and knock you out. so it's a lose lose situation whichever way you go, but if you called and double up you're guranteed money. if you fold, your chances of hitting the money are next to none.

Again, it's time for me to get on my soapbox. Don't think pot commited in a tournament.

Let me just say that in your situation, Aces, I would call every time and hate the results.

Now, back to this. In a tournament, expecially this close to the money. You are never pot commited. I don't care if you only have 5 chips left. If you are sure you are beat, fold. Even 5 chips is enough to get yourself in a situation to double / triple up later, when you are sure that you would lose everything now.

I disagree with Humphrind. If it was earlier in the tournament and the blinds were smaller, then yes I think folding would be the correct move. But at this point if you fold it leaves you with 1,300. Then you're about to be BB/SB and shelling out 600 more if not more if the blinds go up by then leaving you with 700. At that point you're basically going to have to go all-in in at some point in hope of doubling up, and you're going to have to do it twice just to get back to where you were originally. Do you think you're going to get QQ again in those next few hands or possibly something better? Perhaps, but not likely. I would rather take my chances with a strong hand like QQ at this point then chance an all-in shortly later with a weaker one. At some point you are going to have to make a stand. Would you rather do it with pocket queens or later with A-rag?

Of course you could fold and try to steal later to make up the deficit, but with a much smaller stack people are going to be more willing to call you. The typical blind steal is 3X the BB so maybe the big stack read you as trying to steal and put you all-in. Since this guy had such a large stack relative to the rest of the table I'd be more inclined to think that he had a hand like AJ,AQ,AK and is trying to throw his weight around. If so, you are the favorite except in the case of AK it's a coin flip. He could even have a smaller pocket pair like JJ or 10-10. I'd make the call.

Humphrind didn't tell him to fold, he said he'd call every time and hate the results. Humphrind makes a good point, you can't really get pot comitted in a tourny because you can't just reload straight away.

In this case i think you've got to give your QQ a chance to beat this guy even if you knew he had aces, which of course you didn't, there are only 2 hands better than QQ preflop so you can't worry about AA/KK unless you've got a good read on the player, then you can start to think about folding.

I dont see how you can fold here. The only hands you worry about are KK, AA, AK. The odds of him holding one of those hands are ~9% (not sure how to change the calculations based on number of players at the table). So it is much more likely that he is playing based on stack sizes. Big stack will almost always put you all in with Ax or a smaller pair, once he sees that you have alot of chips in the pot. He has to bully you when he has even a moderate chance of beating you, basic tourney strategy ala Doyle Brunson.

Personally, I would have raised all in to begin with. Short-hand in tourneys, I always figure that if I'm going to call a raise from someone of X amount, I should raise X before he can; my chips are going in the pot at some point in the hand and this gives them the hard decision. If he's got AA or KK, lucky him.

i absolutely disagree with humphrind here - shaving your head does nothing for the hand!!! Laughing

one other thing to consider: would you prefer the chance to double up with QQ and 2500 chips, or the chance to double up after you've been blinded down to 155 chips?

the queens are a push. you made the right call.

^^^^^^

Let's discuss this more. Been trying MTTs lately and I've been wondering about this same thing... you're a small stack, say you've got about 3-4xBB. You're still at a full table but you're down to the last 100 out of 700 or whatever. You've been AI a couple of times with, let's say, 99 or AJ, and had it folded to you. You were happy. Now you pick up AA. Do you push again, toss in a 2xBB, or just call?

PS fishstick you took the words out of my mouth - you get JJ or QQ and you push those chips in, you don't know what you're rooting for. Hate to risk the draw outs from the A 10, but you know without doubling up a couple times you have no hope.

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