zook's blog

I don't want to derail Zook's thread so a quick couple thumb links.

$25NL right after I got HM and was about to move to $50NL before the first article.

some session last month right after the articles

This month until yesterday

jyms & Alexos: Over my last 300k hands my non-showdown winnings are tiny... like 4% of my total. And my winrate was about as high as I could ask for. I know Alexos's winrate is sick too, so obv non-showdown winnings can't be that important.

Looking at my 300k graph, I had a really sharp upswing starting last summer that correlated with a sharp upswing in non-showdown winnings. At my relative peak last fall my non-showdown winnings were 1/3 of my total! Then I had an 80k breakeven stretch in which I was running pretty far below all-in EV, but my non-showdown winnings were also on the decline. They went from a peak of $22k to a trough of -$5k! But shockingly, I was actually a modest overall winner during this decline (which extended past my b/e stretch obv), without running above expectation in all-in situations! Then over my past 80k hands I've been winning steadily both overall and in non-showdown pots.

Thinking about how my game has changed, I was super aggro when I went on my big upswing last fall. I was taking shots but playing almost the opposite of scared money. This accounts for my huge upswing in non-showdown winnings I think. Then I had some big losing days at 5/10 and 10/20 and I think the reality of the $ set in and I started playing less aggro. I also consciously incorporated some passivity into my game to take advantage of the crazy multi-barreling taggs. I think this correlates with the long, slow decline in non-showdown winnings, but it could also answer why I was able to make money overall while losing money in non-showdown pots... I was adjusting my game and trying to play more of a CoccoBill style.

Conclusions: 1) Non-showdown winnings are not necessary for overall winnings. In fact, you can win overall over a 100k hand sample while losing HUGE in non-showdown pots. 2) However, losing money in non-showdown pots is likely a leak. While I was able to win while losing money in non-showdown pots, my winrate was much lower than my average. 3) I'm going to keep an eye on my non-showdown winnings as an indicator that I'm being aggro enough, but I'm not going to worry too much about them.

66/51/50

I seriously love this thread. I vote for epic.

Thanks for the encouragement FTR. Played about as well as I can play again today and got kicked in the nuts... again. Only a couple of hands I think I misplayed, otherwise it was a day of losing flips and a fish hitting a 2 outer on the river vs. my AA for 250bb Mad

I actually have some interesting hands to post but I can't think about poker any more right now. I'm going drinking!

Finally a good day yesterday followed by a horrible day today. This feels like my worst stretch of luck but every downswing feels that way. I have a "real" job for the next few weeks so I won't be playing or posting much. Not that psyched about the timing... I'm always most motivated to play when I'm losing and poker's going to be on my brain constantly. Nothing I can do about it though. At least my paycheck won't be vulnerable to any suckouts Smile

Good luck with the new job!!!

BBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

On the won $ without showdown thing. If you were given the choice between:

1. High showdown winnings and losing non showdown winnings

2. Moderate showdown winnings and breakeven non-showdown winnings, or

3. Low showdown winnings and high non-showdown winnings

which would you choose?

Trick question, you'd choose whichever gave you the highest winnings overall.

Its something to be aware of, and could well indicate leaks to be plugged, but you dont want to drop your overall winnings just to bring them up.

Unless of course its just a shortterm adjustment thing and you're confident you can come out the other side with even higher overall winnings.

Since the last time I posted I've had one more day of running and playing badly followed by a much-needed winning session this morning. Something I've wanted to talk about for awhile now...

Playing back in 3bet pots

There's a lot of opportunity here against regs who 3bet a lot and cbet too much. The pot is already bloated and you can threaten opp's entire stack with a minraise, so you don't have to have a high success rate for bluffing to be +ev. Obviously I'm choosing opponents carefully and I'm a little bit careful about board texture, but it's been working pretty well. This month I've called 3bets and raised cbets 26 times and am up 6 buyins in those hands while only winning one hand at showdown. Of course I'm running good, but I still think the strategy is sound. I'll post a few...

1. Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

SB ($609)
BB ($114.85)
Hero (UTG) ($798.85)
MP ($625.50)
Button ($626)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8

, 8

Hero raises to $21, 1 fold, Button raises to $71, 2 folds, Hero calls $50

Flop: ($151) 2

, 10

, A

(3 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $115, Hero raises to $230, 1 fold

Total pot: $381 | Rake: $3

2. Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

Button ($2000)
SB ($2157)
BB ($1769)
Hero (UTG) ($2541.50)
MP ($5550.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A

, 7

Hero raises to $35, 1 fold, Button raises to $120, 2 folds, Hero calls $85

Flop: ($255) 3

, 10

, Q

(2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $185, Hero raises to $400, Button raises to $1880 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $1055 | Rake: $3

3. Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

UTG ($337.25)
MP ($918)
Hero (Button) ($1000)
SB ($2245.75)
BB ($1092)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A

, J

2 folds, Hero raises to $35, 1 fold, BB raises to $125, Hero calls $90

Flop: ($255) 5

, Q

, 3

(2 players)
BB bets $195, Hero raises to $390, 1 fold

Total pot: $645 | Rake: $3

4. This one was pretty surprising against one the biggest winning 2/4 regs. I think the turn shove is close but it's a good card for it.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

BB ($525.40)
UTG ($111.80)
CO ($245.20)
Hero (Button) ($400)
SB ($584.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6

, 6

2 folds, Hero raises to $14, 1 fold, BB raises to $48, Hero calls $34

Flop: ($98) Q

, 7

, J

(2 players)
BB bets $60, Hero raises to $130, BB calls $70

Turn: ($358) Q

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $222 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $358 | Rake: $3

5. Obviously I have a lot more equity in this case but I was still surprised to get a fold, although villain is a bit nitty.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

Hero (CO) ($600)
Button ($600)
SB ($600)
BB ($1033.75)
UTG ($651.90)
MP ($202.90)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K

, Q

2 folds, Hero raises to $21, 1 fold, SB raises to $67, 1 fold, Hero calls $46

Flop: ($140) 9

, 7

, J

(2 players)
SB bets $115, Hero raises to $252, SB calls $137

Turn: ($644) 7

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $281 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $644 | Rake: $3

If you're IP are you still raising the first one?

Looks like you switched around hand 5000? That's a pretty dramatic drop in non-showdown winnings but it definitely shows that they aren't required in a winning game. I've been thinking recently about how the type of game you're in really affects the relevancy of NSW. In tough games where players bet aggressively and know how to fold, it seems essential that you aren't losing a lot without showdown. But in more fishy, passive games you can afford to have negative NSW b/c you're going to get paid at showdown so much more. I would love to see CoccoBill's NSW graph if he has the software to run it...

GL jym, I hope iPoker lets your dark green line catch up to your AI EV soon.

Ok, officially running worse than I ever have. Had a nice +$4k day yesterday than proceeded to drop 10 buyins today. I wasn't playing great, probably could have saved myself 3 stacks but the rest was straight bullshit. Fuck poker!

Is it bad that I'm comforted that its not just me going through this atm?

Keep your chin up man. You are way too strong a player to not snap outta it.

Good news: I played some of my best poker this morning. I was disciplined and aggressive. Before my session I said that I would quit as soon as I made one bad hero call for a significant number of chips. I made it 2+ hours and 1160 hands before I made one and I quit right after. I think progress has been made.

Bad news: I dropped another 4 buyins for $3k. Not much I can do when I lose JJ to 99 AI pre for $1k, KK to JJ AI pre for $700, and fish flop 2pair and sets against my TPTK and overpairs. There's that 2p2 quote that gets thrown around there a lot: "You will run worse than you ever thought possible." I'm sorry to say that it's true. I'm trying to decide whether to drop 5/10 for awhile... I'm still rolled comfortably for it but my online roll is dwindling and some of my offline roll is tied up in investments. I'll probably stick to 2/4 and 3/6 unless I see megafish sitting at 5/10.

Good news: Big picture, big picture... still a 3.5ptbb/100 winner for the year and I still feel confident in my game. I still enjoy playing and thinking about poker. The Phillies are playing their best ball of the year and the Eagles are on MNF tonight. It's a beautiful day and I'm going for a run. When I get back I hope to be in the mood for another session!

Nice posts man. Staying positive is so hard to do and I definitely applaud and respect it. Sorry about the beats.

Afternoon session was much better, fought back to almost even on the day. I think my mindset is good... I'm trying not to think about getting back to even for September, just thinking about playing solid and not making mistakes.

I made a marginal calldown vs. a fish this afternoon, he was running 47/31/1.3 over 60 hands and he'd just lost a pretty big pot on the river so I thought he had some bluff in him.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

Button ($1065)
SB ($1000)
Hero (BB) ($1097)
UTG ($2205)
CO ($879)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A

, J

1 fold, CO raises to $20, 2 folds, Hero raises to $80, CO calls $60

Flop: ($165) 3

, 7

, J

(2 players)
Hero bets $120, CO calls $120

Turn: ($405) Q

(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $280, Hero calls $280

River: ($965) 9

(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $399 (All-In), Hero calls $399

Total pot: $1763 | Rake: $3

Results below:
Hero had A

, J

(one pair, Jacks).
CO had 5

, 5

(one pair, fives).
Outcome: Hero won $1760

Playing bad

I've been blogging a lot about running bad recently but of course this downswing hasn't been entirely due to bad luck. I'm prone to hero calls and spewy shoves just like everyone and I've made my share this month. It's not always tilt the way we usually talk about it... like it's a state of mind we sometimes descend into that makes all of our decisions worse... it's just, like ISF has been blogging about, a failure to be fully conscious in the moment... a failure to bring all of my poker knowledge and experience to bear on a critical decision in a big pot. I do think it's inevitable in some respects, playing 4-6 tables at a time for 5-6 hours a day, making thousands of decisions and only taking a few seconds for most of them. But fuck inevitability, we should strive for perfection and own our mistakes. Don't rationalize or try to justify them, own them and learn from them.

I made a depressing mistake in this hand when I shoved the turn for reasons I can't quite remember (something like, I have top 2 pair in a big pot and he wouldn't check behind this flop with good hands or strong draws so he probably has AsKx) and found out I was drawing dead. What I learned... probably a bad call pre-flop vs. this opp, a terrible shove and probably a fold on the turn... take more time for decisions in big pots, esp. deep.

But poker karma was kind to me and this afternoon a very good winning reg made a similarly bad play against me, which made me realize that we're all human, we all make big mistakes, and all we can do is own them, learn from them and be sure to make fewer than our opponents.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

BB ($1084.50)
UTG ($1052)
MP ($1130)
Hero (CO) ($1000)
Button ($2031)
SB ($959.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K

, Q

2 folds, Hero raises to $35, 2 folds, BB raises to $120, Hero calls $85

Flop: ($245) 9

, A

, 10

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $170, BB calls $170

Turn: ($585) 2

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($585) J

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $710 (All-In), BB calls $710

Total pot: $2005 | Rake: $3

Results below:
BB had 9

, 8

(one pair, nines).
Hero had K

, Q

(straight, Ace high).
Outcome: Hero won $2002

gf's out of town the next 3 days so I will be putting in many, many hands and maybe a tourney or two. And the Phillies are in 1st in the NL East!

I think you're right, often if we stopped and took a few seconds we'd change our mind. Its a matter of learning to do so.

Another problem is Poker rewarding those bad decisions sometimes. Like when you make a bad hero call but actually win. Its easy to think you're a soul reading guru, but in fact you just got lucky this time and most times he will have it.

I call it semi-perma-tilt.

Had about the easiest +$1.5k session I can remember this morning, all of it won at 2/4. I only won one stack but I didn't lose any pots over 40bb. I felt really focused and I think I made some good folds. The good play carried over into the 6-max WCOOP this afternoon and I pwned my first two tables and was in the top 30 in chips for quite awhile. Some bad luck with AA and AKs did me in before the money, but I felt better about my play in this tourney than any I've played in a long time. I was going to play another session tonight but my brain is fried. So I'm railing ISF in the WCOOP and enjoying a few beers. 11!

you should practice better Bankroll Management...

*Last edited by zook on Thu, 18 Sep 2008, 9:18pm; edited 2 times in total*

Went on a very nice heater this morning, which was sorely needed. Even though meeloche busted my Stars roll last night I ignored his BR management advice and took a shot at 10/20 b/c a couple of megafish were sitting. KK>QQ on the first hand, table broke and that was it. Other than that I ran a bunch of good hands into terrible players, the easiest recipe for success.

One interesting hand from the session... villain is 19/15/3.6, raises 29% from UTG and folds to 3bets 75% (although with only 600 hands there are sampling issues for the last two stats). A couple of aggro regs on the btn and bb and a spewy fish in the sb, so there's a chance of a squeeze. That plus the 75% fold to 3bet stat made me flat KK, which I rarely do. Post-flop comes perfectly and villain gives me his chips. I'm ahead of his valuebetting range on the river (JJ+,88,AJ imo) and there's a nonzero chance of an AK/JT-type 3 barrel bluff.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

Hero (MP) ($624)
Button ($600)
SB ($1174.40)
BB ($627)
UTG ($409.70)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K

, K

UTG raises to $21, Hero calls $21, Button calls $21, 2 folds

Flop: ($72) 2

, 8

, J

(4 players)
UTG bets $36, Hero calls $36, 1 fold

Turn: ($144) 2

(3 players)
UTG bets $118, Hero calls $118

River: ($380) 6

(3 players)
UTG bets $234.70 (All-In), Hero calls $234.70

Total pot: $849.40 | Rake: $3

Results below:
UTG had Q

, 10

(one pair, twos).
Hero had K

, K

(two pair, Kings and twos).
Outcome: Hero won $846.40

edit: meant AK/T9-type 3 barrel bluff

Hmmm zook 75% fld to 3bet actually isnt that large, and i'd probably threebet in this spot. The rest is fine or you could raise the flop, either way.

75% fold to 3bet seems pretty huge, I only know a couple regs that have higher fold to 3bets!!!

btw great thread zook

I'm the same way I don't call very many 3 bets at all but I'm 4 betting a decent amount instead.

Quick post before I head off for a backpacking weekend in Yosemite... last night and this morning I gave back half of winnings from my big session yesterday. I lost 3 big pots with AA and got set-over-setted twice, but I also misplayed a few 3bet pots, two for stacks. I'm thinking about creating a "worst of" set of hand histories... try to represent my most common mistakes so I can remind myself of them before each session. That will be first on my poker list when I get back. Enjoy your weekend!

Had an awesome weekend, might post some photos in the commune later. Played some this morning and got killed, down $4.5k in 500 hands Good grief

I've been reviewing the session and I only think I made one big mistake, which I'll post below. I'm shocked I can lose that much while playing decently, but that's the way this month has gone.

Villain is an aggro reg running 21/18/3, 3betting 9% and cbetting 86% over a large sample. We have some spewy history, mainly pre-flop. When he c/c'ed the flop I put him on an underpair with 90% certainty. This guy cbets like it's his religion, esp after 3betting (89% in 35 3bet pots), he knows this is a board cbets aren't getting a lot of credit on and he knows I distrust him. My turn bet is questionable, but given our history I thought I could get one more bet out of an underpair and it would be easier on the turn than the river (a check through from me on the turn looks like a made hand going for pot control while a bet could be a float). His turn c/r was wtf... I just couldn't put him on a hand that beats me here besides 76s so I called. Definitely one of my biggest leaks is calling in these "wtf could he have spots".

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($1988)
SB ($2615)
BB ($1565)
UTG ($918.45)
Hero (MP) ($1487)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q

, K

1 fold, Hero raises to $35, 2 folds, BB raises to $110, Hero calls $75

Flop: ($225) 6

, Q

, 3

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $140, BB calls $140

Turn: ($505) 6

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $300, BB raises to $1315 (All-In), Hero calls $937 (All-In)

River: ($2979) 7

(2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $2979 | Rake: $3

Results below:
BB had 9

, 6

(three of a kind, sixes).
Hero had Q

, K

(two pair, Queens and sixes).
Outcome: BB won $2976

Got some other work coming up for the next three weeks so I won't be playing as much. I'll try to keep posting interesting hands though.

Wow, my first thought was monster on the flop, with a mid pair less likely but still part of his range.

I don't think the stackoff is very good in a vacuum, but given history I can see the logic....

Lol, lately thats been quads for me. "Hmm, I wondered about a set, but the 2nd 6 makes 66 extremely unlikely and he shouldnt have a bare 6 so its only 33 I need to worry about".

And he flips 66.

flop looks like 99-JJ or a 67/56 type hand, possible 45s if he gets creative

In a strictly value sense (I don't play 5/10 mind you) what street is more likely to get called, the turn or river? Can you expect 3 streets here in a 3bet pot against like TT?

Yea I should probably read the background/thoughts before I post but I'm lazzzzzzzzy

side note, I've been searching for that picture of you hammered now every time I open this thread to post in here but I cannot seem to find it. Frankly, I'm a little tilted over it.

Haven't played since Monday, probably won't play much for the next couple weeks. I have contract work I'm busy with, and my month-old desktop crashed on Friday and it won't even boot up now Sad

I've had good luck with computers for years and then in the space of a couple of months I had a music hard drive and a brand new pimped-out machine crash. Oh well, the machine's still under warranty at least. So I'm going to focus on my "real" job for the next couple of weeks while Dell fixes or replaces my computer. I've been reading Jeff Hwang's PLO book recently so I might put in some hands here and there when I'm feeling poker withdrawal. I'll post anything interesting...

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