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Posted: Sun, 30 Mar 2008, 7:09pm Post subject: Whats your line? Gutshot + FD
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Straight
Joined: 25 Oct 2005
Posts: 222
WPP: 139
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Villian is an aggro donk with a wide 3bet range
$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
Hero ($9.95)
CO ($14.95)
BTN ($14.55)
SB ($5.95)
BB ($6.65)
Pre-flop: ($0.15, 5 players) Hero is UTG  
Hero raises to $0.4, 2 folds, SB raises to $0.7, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.3
Flop:    ($1.5, 2 players)
SB bets $1, Hero ??? |
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Posted: Sun, 30 Mar 2008, 7:31pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 25 Jul 2005
Posts: 1477
WPP: 98
Location: swonging and swonging
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push.
I kinda hate it, but I do it anyway. |
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Posted: Sun, 30 Mar 2008, 8:40pm Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 05 Feb 2007
Posts: 319
WPP: 103
Location: The future
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| We can shove expecting to profit here. |
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Posted: Sun, 30 Mar 2008, 11:16pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 25 Sep 2005
Posts: 3547
WPP: 101
Location: The Grind
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| Unibomber14 wrote: | | We can shove expecting to profit here. |
Not necessarily. We're a bit behind any ace here and way behind when he holds the K  .
With that having been said, it's still a shove I believe, but mostly because of villain's stack size. |
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Posted: Mon, 31 Mar 2008, 1:35am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 13 Aug 2007
Posts: 1594
WPP: 117
Location: getting my swell on
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| spoonitnow wrote: | | Unibomber14 wrote: | | We can shove expecting to profit here. |
Not necessarily. We're a bit behind any ace here and way behind when he holds the K .
With that having been said, it's still a shove I believe, but mostly because of villain's stack size. |
this is assuming he has a pair with the K, and yeah i agree with everyone, shove. |
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Posted: Mon, 31 Mar 2008, 10:32am Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 22 Apr 2006
Posts: 444
WPP: 118
Location: Chicago
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| Could somebody explain this hand to me? Do we think he's cbetting w/o an ace or is that fact irrelevant? |
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Posted: Mon, 31 Mar 2008, 10:45am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 25 Sep 2005
Posts: 3547
WPP: 101
Location: The Grind
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| will641 wrote: | | spoonitnow wrote: | | Unibomber14 wrote: | | We can shove expecting to profit here. |
Not necessarily. We're a bit behind any ace here and way behind when he holds the K .
With that having been said, it's still a shove I believe, but mostly because of villain's stack size. |
this is assuming he has a pair with the K, and yeah i agree with everyone, shove. |
Your wording has thrown me off a bit on what you mean here, but if he has an ace without the K , we're still slightly behind. |
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Posted: Mon, 31 Mar 2008, 11:16am Post subject:
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Straight
Joined: 25 Oct 2005
Posts: 222
WPP: 139
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If i push the flop that means I need to raise his $1 flop bet to $5.25, doesn't that seem like a overbet? I guess if I'm going to raise to $3.50 or $4, I might as well bet the last little bit.
If he has 100BB stack what is your play? |
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Posted: Mon, 31 Mar 2008, 12:25pm Post subject:
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Two Pair
Joined: 02 May 2007
Posts: 38
WPP: 136
Location: ACT, Australia
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I'm still getting my head around the odds calcuations etc - but yeah, it looks like we're betting another $4.25 to win a total pot of $6.75 if he calls? Assuming we hit our striaght or flush draw? (Assuming we're beat if we only hit a K or Q?)
Can someone explain the math to show this is a correct shove? |
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Posted: Mon, 31 Mar 2008, 3:24pm Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 22 Jun 2005
Posts: 7939
WPP: 71
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
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raise, call a shove
i say this because we'd raise this flop with a good tp versus a suspected donk and we should do it with all our hands that want to play big pots here. |
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Posted: Mon, 31 Mar 2008, 4:21pm Post subject:
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Straight
Joined: 25 Oct 2005
Posts: 222
WPP: 139
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| Hal wrote: | I'm still getting my head around the odds calcuations etc - but yeah, it looks like we're betting another $4.25 to win a total pot of $6.75 if he calls? Assuming we hit our striaght or flush draw? (Assuming we're beat if we only hit a K or Q?)
Can someone explain the math to show this is a correct shove? |
After Villians bet on the flop, the pot is $2.5, if we push, we have to call his $1 first. That means the pot would be $3.50 and we would put him all in for $4.25 more. If he calls, the total pot will be $3.50 + our $4.25 + his $4.25 = $12, so we need 4.25/12 = 35.4% equity to make this play, (Plus there might be a little folding equity).
Board: As Js 6s
Dead:
equity win tie
Hand 0: 46.680% 45.17% 01.51% { KdQs }
Hand 1: 53.320% 51.81% 01.51% { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AKo } (5%)
Note: I don't claim to be a math expert, and I wanted to exercise my EV calc skills, so if there's something wrong here please let me know! |
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Posted: Mon, 31 Mar 2008, 4:25pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 25 Jul 2005
Posts: 1477
WPP: 98
Location: swonging and swonging
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| bigslikk wrote: | | Could somebody explain this hand to me? Do we think he's cbetting w/o an ace or is that fact irrelevant? | An ace? This is a pretty scary board, we're putting him to the test here because we have FE against a big part of his range, including some aces I think.
As for 100bb effective stacks... After his 1 and our 1, there's 3.50 in the pot and we have 8.30 behind. Raising 3 more leaves us with 5.3 behind and gives him better than 2:1. Since he's an agro donk we can assume he pushes a fair amount, and we have pretty good odds to call that push. So if we push, we're pushing 9.30 into 2.50 and giving him a bit worse than 3:2. I don't really like committing that much, though I don't think it's all that bad. A call isn't terrible, either. It's close, but I'm like 50/50 on the call or push. |
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Posted: Mon, 31 Mar 2008, 6:22pm Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 22 Jun 2005
Posts: 7939
WPP: 71
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
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| dev wrote: | | bigslikk wrote: | | Could somebody explain this hand to me? Do we think he's cbetting w/o an ace or is that fact irrelevant? | An ace? This is a pretty scary board, we're putting him to the test here because we have FE against a big part of his range, including some aces I think.
As for 100bb effective stacks... After his 1 and our 1, there's 3.50 in the pot and we have 8.30 behind. Raising 3 more leaves us with 5.3 behind and gives him better than 2:1. Since he's an agro donk we can assume he pushes a fair amount, and we have pretty good odds to call that push. So if we push, we're pushing 9.30 into 2.50 and giving him a bit worse than 3:2. I don't really like committing that much, though I don't think it's all that bad. A call isn't terrible, either. It's close, but I'm like 50/50 on the call or push. |
...which makes pushing/raising all that much better because being the aggressor is always more +ev.
Implied threat and all... |
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