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WEREWOLF MULLIGAN

  
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a500lbgorilla
Post Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009, 11:15pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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lynch bigspenda

he'll be recruited anyways making him a liability. For a day 1 lynch, the only way we could do better is the alpha wolf.
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bode
Post Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009, 11:26pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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pennywise is such a classic level 1 thinker. i like stax's argument that the smart play is for the alpha to recruit a bunch of vets, and it makes sense. however, i think doing the exact opposite has a ton of merit. especially after playing out the first few days of zombie WW like we did, the alpha can recruit an army of noobs while we out think/out level ourselves and string up all the vets.
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a500lbgorilla
Post Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009, 11:29pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
LAME HUMOR THAT MAKES FISH LAUGH
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they could, but after 3 or 4 days, they'll probably regret having noobs vrs wiley vets like spenda.
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Penneywize
Post Posted: Tue, 03 Nov 2009, 11:36pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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bode wrote:
pennywise is such a classic level 1 thinker. i like stax's argument that the smart play is for the alpha to recruit a bunch of vets, and it makes sense. however, i think doing the exact opposite has a ton of merit. especially after playing out the first few days of zombie WW like we did, the alpha can recruit an army of noobs while we out think/out level ourselves and string up all the vets.


yeah, I get where you're comin from, and yes my reasons are thus far very level 1. Don't take this to mean that I'm not capable of anything deeper than that though.

What we've got to work from is as follows:

Someone was randomly picked to be the alpha, and the alpha selected someone to join the zombie side. With this as the only information we have, I think lynching a vet on day 1 is our best option, for the reasons I stated.

I don't want to lynch a vet on day 2 and 3 and 4. I am working on the assumption that by then, we will have more info to work off; maybe our seer will look someone up, maybe a wolf will blow his cover.

basically - we can't realistically hope to get a wolf on day 1, as we might in classic WW. Therefore, the next best solution is to pick a vet to hang because our chances are better than average (I am assuming this), and we preclude the possibility of that vet joining the wolves for now.

If you have some better strat to follow, for day 1 I mean, I'd definitely entertain other possibilities..
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BooG690
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 12:03am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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...and JKDS falls right on the bottom of the "vet" category. He's basically the shittiest vet there is...c'mon boys. String his ass up.
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DoanDiggy
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 12:28am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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Instant Aces wrote:
I like a BooG690 lynch but I know nobodies gonna jump on my bandwagon so I'll wait and see where you guys go with this.


I can get on board with this, obviously.
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JKDS
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 1:08am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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im glad i have vet status now, ive worked hard for it.

but lets be real. the last 4 werewolves (other than that last one) i've been a crazy psychopath going about saying LYNCH HIM FOR X,Y,Z and causing lots of ruckus as well as being the top priority lynch for everyone. Sure, I nailed the alpha last game...but the other vets can do that too and ARENT on everyones lynch list. Add to this fact that boog has a hard on for me that usually gets pretty close to succeeding and i think its pretty clear that id be a terrible, terrible choice when we have ppl like warpe who can still wtf pwn the wolves, is still epic at ww, and is much more low profile. ( i dont advocate lynching warpe, but he logically fits better into any lynch the vet arguement)

last thing, aside from what ppl think, i dont see the harm in having a bunch of vets around. Its nice to be able to have somone like warpe go and say OMG SPENDA ARE WOLF because these ppl have played with each other enough to notice this.
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JKDS
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 1:10am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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JKDS wrote:
im glad i have vet status now, ive worked hard for it.

but lets be real. the last 4 werewolves (other than that last one) i've been a crazy psychopath going about saying LYNCH HIM FOR X,Y,Z and causing lots of ruckus as well as being the top priority lynch for everyone. Sure, I nailed the alpha last game...but the other vets can do that too and ARENT on everyones lynch list. Add to this fact that boog has a hard on for me that usually gets pretty close to succeeding, i think its pretty clear that id be a terrible, terrible choice when we have ppl like warpe who can still wtf pwn the wolves, is still epic at ww, and is much more low profile. ( i dont advocate lynching warpe, but he logically fits better into any lynch the vet arguement)

last thing, aside from what ppl think, i dont see the harm in having a bunch of vets around. Its nice to be able to have somone like warpe go and say OMG SPENDA ARE WOLF because these ppl have played with each other enough to notice this.
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JKDS
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 1:13am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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made a typo Razz

also i like lynching anyone that doesnt stand out to much and ppl dont generally want to lycnh early. stacks still fits this bill because i dont think ppl would expect him to be recruited again. also, i like keith, instant aces, pellion, and a number of other sane quietish ppl that dont go all JKDS and cause riots.
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StillDeadMoney
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 2:11am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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JKDS wrote:
but lets be real. i've been a crazy psychopath


Here's a picture of your work in the Cold War WW game:



Shocked
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XxStacksxX
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 2:22am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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Meh.. An alpha recruiting vets works both ways... Sure it gets a vet on his side, and away from the side of the village. However, I think it would be a little foolish to recruit the most prolific vets. The ones that are always on a lynch radar, at least this early. Mainly for the fact that it's so level 1 to recruit them, and they are likely to have suspicion cast upon them for this reason. And it really doesn't hurt to let them stay in for the first few days, because there isn't enough information to deduce and make correct assumptions off of.

I would think a better alpha strat for the first few days would to go after mid-high level players. Players like Bode, Kingnat, BooG come to mind. Just a fwiw, Kingnat would be a pretty awesome recruit imo. He's an intelligent player, and he has like never been on anyways radar as far as I know.
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TLR
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 2:23am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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At the previous run we had the same discussion about the alpha wolf probably targeting veterans of the game, however the first two lynches had nothing to do with this logic
We lynched SDM for being SDM, and we lynched Spenda for being silent

I think that the wolf is most likely not to recruit a noob as the first recruit, so we should avoid the temptation of lynching one at day 1
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JKDS
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 2:29am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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hrm, i agree with stax

lynch da kingnat

hard to get any more low profile / regish than that
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XxStacksxX
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 2:32am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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Recind Spenda
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kiwiMark
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 2:58am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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Quote:
I think that the wolf is most likely not to recruit a noob as the first recruit, so we should avoid the temptation of lynching one at day 1


I like this man.
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dranger7070
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 3:32am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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Missed this due to sleeping all day like a POS. Sad Stax's idea of lynching kingnat is as good as any other.

lynch kingnat
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WillburForce
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 5:36am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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i agree with a noob being targeted.

lynch KiwiMArk
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Keith_MM
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 5:52am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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well , technically we could argue that there are no noobs in this WW. Whilst its been pointed out that vets would be good candidates , noobs could just as easily be a good target for recruitment. In the halloween one , Kiwimark hardly said anything so could quite easily just sit back and still hardly say anything while the village take out the "best" players to prevent them getting recruited. Alpha needs numbers at the start,so why risk going for someone who could get lynched. Last game the noobs hardly got a mention .
Therefore I agree with Wilbur , lynch Kiwimark
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kiwiMark
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 6:10am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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I genuinely think Stax's reasoning holds more water. The alpha wolf has to figure that we could level ourselves into lynching just about anyone (as we've seen, there's been a post of "he'd recruit a high person!", "no wait, he wants us to think that, he'd recruit a med person!" and finally "aha, it's all a level, he'll recruit a noob!") deciding on which 'level' we decide to arbitrarily go with.
Given that, it makes more sense to try and get somebody who would be an asset to the wolves, ie. somebody with more experience.

Keith pointed out I didn't post much in the last game, which is fair, however I'd point out that Keith seems to normally be quite active, and yet this time has only shown up and jumped on a freshly-forming bandwagon after JKDS listed his name as a potential target.

That said, there've been a bunch of people who haven't dropped in at all yet, and I'm happy to get on a kingnat lynchwagon.

lynch kingnat
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kiwiMark
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 6:28am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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If I understand the rules right, in three hours someone will get lynched regardless. I'm going to sleep now and won't be on for about nine hours, so once again I'd like to stress my innocence and say we lynch a sensible target (ie. somebody who would make a useful wolf, rather than a debatably inconspicuous but useless one) so we have a chance against the recruiting alpha.
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bigred
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 9:01am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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kingnat is busy saving equality
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bigspenda73
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 9:20am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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a500lbgorilla wrote:
lynch bigspenda

he'll be recruited anyways making him a liability. For a day 1 lynch, the only way we could do better is the alpha wolf.


could sub in like 3 or 4 other names, including yours, using this argument

LEAVE SPENDA ALONE
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bode
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 9:22am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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even though i'm on that list stax, i like the argument for kingnat. he has been completely under the radar and would be a perfect zombie recruit.

lynch kingnat
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ChrisBCritter
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 9:25am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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Too many chiefs, not enough indians.

I wanted to lynch SDM again because it would be funny. Since Kingnat is all Butt-hurt from losing the vote yesterday, I'll spare him a noose around his neck...

lynch kiwiMark
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GatorJH
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 9:27am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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bode wrote:
even though i'm on that list stax, i like the argument for kingnat. he has been completely under the radar and would be a perfect zombie recruit.

lynch kingnat


I was gonna go with a Spenda lynch, but I like this reasoning as well.

lynch kingnat
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Keith_MM
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 9:29am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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kiwiMark wrote:
I genuinely think Stax's reasoning holds more water. The alpha wolf has to figure that we could level ourselves into lynching just about anyone (as we've seen, there's been a post of "he'd recruit a high person!", "no wait, he wants us to think that, he'd recruit a med person!" and finally "aha, it's all a level, he'll recruit a noob!") deciding on which 'level' we decide to arbitrarily go with.
well obviously you'd prefer a vet lynch to a noob lynch even if its only to stay in the game.
Quote:

Given that, it makes more sense to try and get somebody who would be an asset to the wolves, ie. somebody with more experience.

Keith pointed out I didn't post much in the last game, which is fair, however I'd point out that Keith seems to normally be quite active, and yet this time has only shown up and jumped on a freshly-forming bandwagon after JKDS listed his name as a potential target.
bit of a timing tell though.....a lot of the regs will know that wilbur, badgers and me are uk based and the game swung from night to day roughly 1am to 2 pm UK time (is server ET? ) when we UK based people were likely to be asleep especially midweek.Me and Wilbur post from work so why should we be showing up with any posts earlier than we did. First phase was night so no point in posting.
As for jumping on a bandwagon , I find this hilarious in that i beleive I was the second vote for you and then you go and jump on an established bandwagon in Kingnat.JKDS and a few of the others will know that I will vigourously argue my defence and I've managed to convince JKDS of my innocence regularly.
Quote:

That said, there've been a bunch of people who haven't dropped in at all yet, and I'm happy to get on a kingnat lynchwagon.

lynch kingnat


day 1 is a crap shoot , and your logic for me being suspicious because I haven't posted in the first few hours without thinking about reasons why that might be leave me happy with my choice so far.
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flomo
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 10:03am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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kingnat vs kiwim

kingnat seems more like first recruit than kiwi
for alpha they would be equal

lynch kingnat
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XxStacksxX
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 10:12am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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Did kingnat want the gays to get married, or not?

Depending on the answer, BigRed and Rilla might come in sealing his fate.

Lynch Kingnat
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kingnat
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 10:36am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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bigred wrote:
kingnat is busy saving equality


Apparently, I wasn't busy enough. Sad

Stax, your reasoning is inexplicably sound (especially for someone from the souff)... but, you only think I'm intelligent becuase we talk on skype and I am able to speak in complete sentences... (unlike your momma).... and you know i haz edumacation and what not... most players here don't know anything about me.

But aside from mocking your souffness, I'm just a reg villager. I don't even have special powers I can claim to save me from the gallows. I realize that these things are always crapshooty, but I'd suggest we crapshoot someone else.

lynch kiwimark
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XxStacksxX
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 10:40am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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The question was... DID YOU WANT THE GAYS TO MARRY OR NOT?

Also, I'm not changing my vote.. You iz so wolfy.
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DoanDiggy
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 11:04am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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Current vote counts (13 needed to lynch):

kingnat - 7 (JKDS, dranger7070, kiwiMark, bode, GatorJH, flomo, XxStacksxX)
kiwiMark - 4 (WillburForce, Keith_MM, ChrisBCritter, kingnat)
JKDS - 2 (BooG690, Penneywize)
bigspenda73 - 1 (XxStacksxX, a500lbgorilla)
GatorJH - 1 (bigred)
Penneywize - 1 (Warpe)
DoanDiggy - 0 (BooG690)

I guess kingnat seems like a solid choice, but I don't really like it, especially considering that no WW pros have voted for him yet. I'm going to hold off a little while longer.

And we have 48 hour days? I ask because kiwiMark mentioned that we might be running out of time (12 hour day? WTF?) when it's only been 14 hours.
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StillDeadMoney
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 11:34am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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I'm fairly certain 48 hour days are the standard now.
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a500lbgorilla
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 11:41am    Post subject: Reply with quote
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we're basically all villagers right now. If were going to kill someone, lets make it someone we'd hate to see turned into a wolf.

lynch bigspenda

That's 2! only 11 more to go!
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StillDeadMoney
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 12:02pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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a500lbgorilla wrote:
lynch bigspenda

That's 2! only 11 more to go!


You've already voted to lynch spenda, and Stax rescinded his vote. You're the only one voting for him so far.
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DoanDiggy
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 12:03pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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^^ Obviously missed the joke when 'rilla did that last game.
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StillDeadMoney
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 12:13pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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DoanDiggy wrote:
^^ Obviously missed the joke when 'rilla did that last game.


Ah.
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XxStacksxX
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 12:24pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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a500lbgorilla wrote:
we're basically all villagers right now. If were going to kill someone, lets make it someone we'd hate to see turned into a wolf.


Pretty solid logic.

Recind Kingnat
Lynch Rilla anyone?

^^^^ Notice, it's not bold.. But I could seriously get behind a Rilla lynch, basically for the logic he has here.
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DoanDiggy
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 12:28pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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I hate to agree with Stacks, but I was thinking the exact same thing after reading rilla's post.
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XxStacksxX
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 12:35pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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DoanDiggy wrote:
I hate to agree with Stacks, but I was thinking the exact same thing after reading rilla's post.


Agreeing with me is a pretty shitty strategy imo Sad
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JKDS
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 12:42pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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i can be persuaded to lynch the doan diggity.
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BooG690
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 12:51pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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JKDS wrote:
i can be persuaded to lynch the doan diggity.
JKDS, let's put our differences aside and lynch this DoanDiggy focker.

OK, but in all seriousness, if I were the alpha wolf, I'd expect nobody to suspect Stacks of being a wolf for he was the wolf last game, right? The same logic can be made for a Spenda lynch.

Rescind whomever
Lynch Stacks
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XxStacksxX
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 1:06pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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While that's pretty obvious BooG, I think with the n00b wolf errors I made early in the last game, the "deception" of taking me would be outweighed by the problems my wolf inexperience could possibly cause. I mean JKDS basically soulread me last game and I only had like 6 mosts. Him seeking me wasn't random, as I'm not that prolific (<<< My word of the week fwiw) of a player.

I mean, it's solid logic, but I believe an alpha would more than likely take an individual that would be a good wolf, over me, when it's also pretty level 1 to think I would be not suspicious.
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Penneywize
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 1:16pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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Hi

Lots of colourful voting going on...!

Kingnat seems like an OK choice and I won't intentionally derail him. The only argument I can think that goes against lynching him is that he gave himself up pretty easy the last time he was a wolf (I think in a game earlier this summer if I recall correctly). So he would not be / isn't a dangerous adversary.

I still like the plan of lynching a vet, which oddly puts me on the same side as 'rilla, even if he is one of the targets of this strategy

Can we not lynch a vet guys. Give it some thought

I am equally up for bode, spenda, warpe, 'rilla, jkds, and whoever else we think qualifies as a vet these days

I'll rescind JKDS for now.
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a500lbgorilla
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 1:28pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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you guys should def lynch me. I'm dangerous! But, i'm not a dangerous dbag like spenda. So he's first.
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Warpe
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 1:31pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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I'm sticking with Penneywise b/c he seems awfully eager to get the players with good wolfdar lynched in a hurry.
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lolzzz_321
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 1:46pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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There is no 48 hr rule, suck it up and lynch
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a500lbgorilla
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 1:47pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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Warpe wrote:
I'm sticking with Penneywise b/c he seems awfully eager to get the players with good wolfdar lynched in a hurry.


Prior to this post, he looked like an over-eager villager to me. I think you should join my bandwagon before I join yours.
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JKDS
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 1:48pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
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Penneywize wrote:


Can we not lynch a vet guys. Give it some thought

I am equally up for bode, spenda, warpe, 'rilla, jkds, and whoever else we think qualifies as a vet these days



wait, wat?

fuck kingnat, warpe's wolfdar is better than mine anyway, and penny is also fairly low profile

rescind

lynch the pennywise
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Warpe
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 2:02pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
OLD MAN RIVER
OLD MAN RIVER

Joined: 14 Sep 2005
Posts: 3687
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a500lbgorilla wrote:
Warpe wrote:
I'm sticking with Penneywise b/c he seems awfully eager to get the players with good wolfdar lynched in a hurry.


Prior to this post, he looked like an over-eager villager to me. I think you should join my bandwagon before I join yours.


Mine has twice as many votes.
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XxStacksxX
Post Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 2:04pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Season VIII
Season VIII

Joined: 14 Jan 2008
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Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Meh.. I mean truthfully this whole logic can be bounced around for days, and spun in many different directions. Using Rilla's logic, taking out vets that are likely to (1) be recruited early more than the n00bs, and (2) be dangerous adversaries when they are inevitably recruited, is a good strategy for the village. The drawback is that we lose some of the better villagers, the ones that are likely to soulread, and point the inexperienced villagers in the right directions. However, the vets will at some point be recruited, and they already have loads of influence over the villagers, that they will then be able to point them in the wrong direction with ease.

It's kind of a toss-up between whether the village should take out the individuals who will be very dangerous adversaries (the vets), limiting the WW's recruiting pool to mid-low level players? Or do we keep them in hoping they haven't been recruited so they can figure things out?

Personally, I don't know which should take precedence.
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