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Posted: Tue, 30 Jun 2009, 3:30am Post subject: unlucky =/
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Flush
Joined: 23 Nov 2008
Posts: 348
WPP: 45
Location: not anymore
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i'm down just over 0.6ptbb/100 in AIEV over 560k hands, IE $5000. That's a lot, and a pretty large sample.
FML ? |
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Posted: Tue, 30 Jun 2009, 12:11pm Post subject:
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Straight
Joined: 14 May 2009
Posts: 217
WPP: 65
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im sorry dude that's harsh. Make sure your making all teh right +EV decisions.  |
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Posted: Tue, 30 Jun 2009, 5:28pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 05 Jan 2009
Posts: 2206
WPP: 81
Location: sigh..nit ring
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| start making -ev decisions so you can get above ev |
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Posted: Tue, 30 Jun 2009, 6:27pm Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 12 Sep 2007
Posts: 536
WPP: 129
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| Micro2Macro wrote: | | start making -ev decisions so you can get above ev |
The Costanza Theory of Poker? |
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Posted: Wed, 01 Jul 2009, 5:27am Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 19 Nov 2008
Posts: 813
WPP: 69
Location: in my dad's account making him manies
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| ha! but mathematically it's true, getting it in bad improves your AIEV |
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Posted: Wed, 01 Jul 2009, 2:38pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 14 Jan 2009
Posts: 659
WPP: 86
Location: Norway
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Is that true Para?
Let us say we get it all in with 22 against QQ 100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 times.
Our average EV is about 0.2*average pots size. Why should we expect to run ahead of our EV here, if we assume online poker is not manipulated?
It seems like most of the posters here run below EV and this is something I find very strange.
Only factor that determines whether we run below or above EV is luck.
But I suspect other factors work against us here. |
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Posted: Wed, 01 Jul 2009, 3:06pm Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 06 Apr 2007
Posts: 272
WPP: 98
Location: constantly UTG
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| Parasurama wrote: | | ha! but mathematically it's true, getting it in bad improves your AIEV |
If you're saying what I think you're saying this is wrong... |
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Posted: Wed, 01 Jul 2009, 3:11pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 19 Nov 2008
Posts: 813
WPP: 69
Location: in my dad's account making him manies
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| In the long run it doesn't I meant if you get it in bad and win, sorry for being unclear |
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Posted: Wed, 01 Jul 2009, 3:17pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 25 Jul 2007
Posts: 1630
WPP: 84
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| Sir Pawnalot wrote: | | It seems like most of the posters here run below EV and this is something I find very strange. |
I doubt that's true, the ones running under EV are just by far the loudest. Nobody wants to post a graph running above EV because of the implication that they suck and just run amazing. It's not true, but it's the converse of the "zomg I just run so bad" under EV graph that's so easy to bitch about.
If you want to base your suspicions on some actual data I'd have more respect for your paranoia. There are people out there doing statistical analysis of the games trying to find some bias somewhere which is how the UB superuser scandal was uncovered.
If anything actually was discovered on the major sites it'd be the biggest news in the poker community ever. And believe me, EV graphs are the first place they look cuz it's the easiest and most obvious. |
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Posted: Wed, 01 Jul 2009, 3:24pm Post subject:
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Eats babies
Joined: 28 Feb 2006
Posts: 3885
WPP: 109
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| d0zer wrote: | | Sir Pawnalot wrote: | | It seems like most of the posters here run below EV and this is something I find very strange. |
I doubt that's true, the ones running under EV are just by far the loudest. Nobody wants to post a graph running above EV because of the implication that they suck and just run amazing. It's not true, but it's the converse of the "zomg I just run so bad" under EV graph that's so easy to bitch about.
If you want to base your suspicions on some actual data I'd have more respect for your paranoia. There are people out there doing statistical analysis of the games trying to find some bias somewhere which is how the UB superuser scandal was uncovered.
If anything actually was discovered on the major sites it'd be the biggest news in the poker community ever. And believe me, EV graphs are the first place they look cuz it's the easiest and most obvious. | This is true, I never put my EV line in unless it's horrendously to the bad. I never show when it turns around for me. My first three months I lost most of my roll with bad EV and tilt. I am almost even on EV now. |
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Posted: Wed, 01 Jul 2009, 3:36pm Post subject:
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3-of-a-Kind
Joined: 04 Nov 2008
Posts: 90
WPP: 116
Location: Pennsylvania
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Not sure if this helps, but I know for a fact that PT3 does not calculate EV properly for multi-way pots.
I track my EV for big pots (25BB+) in a separate spreadsheet that i calculate myself.
Not sure about whether HEM calculates it properly b/c i don't use it... |
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Posted: Wed, 01 Jul 2009, 4:20pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 14 Jan 2009
Posts: 659
WPP: 86
Location: Norway
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Good points, people do not brag about being lucky.
I must stress that I am no hardcore believer of the rigged nature of online poker, but I am no hardcore disbeliever either.
Besides I do not trust Maltesians(?) and Gibraltians (?). |
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Restricted FTR $200 Freeroll at FullTilt on November 23rd
