Turning Pro. Potential Pitfalls and advice needed

So Im thinking about it. Only half seriously that is ...its of course possible Im being a complete f00l so Id like to see some discussion here on what's it all about

Me as a player:

# Been playing for 2.5 years. Have spreadsheeting myself from the start and am profitable at kichen table games, local casino and online (although I had to catch up $1500 US online that I spent basically getting schooled)

# I've logged 200 hours at my local Casino and made a 10K profit mostly playing LIMIT 5/10. is 200 hours a big enough sample?

# Im doing well at nights playing mostly Party Poker and Paradise MTTs and 10 player ring games. Im pretty sure I could do considerably better if I full time serious. i.e. not already tired from my working day/not half watching TV at the same time/not stoned or half drunk some of the time etc

Also...Im a kiwi so with my time zone Im mostly playing when the poker rooms are half empty. When the rooms are at capacity does that mean more fish or less? I read someplace that 70% of all online poker players are North Americans? Is that correct? So how does that affect the fishyness of the action?

To be honest...one of my main concerns about turning pro is not so much the financial uncertainty/swings etc cos Im pretty sure I have the game, mentality and bankroll to get through that. Its the fact that I LOVE POKER, and worry that doing it for a living will ruin all that. I actually hate playing at my local Casino because of the discipline involved in playing a winning game makes it all so freakin BORING. If I turned pro however I would make myself play there a few nights a week to ensure at least some income if online wasnt going well.Seriously the players at the Auckland Casino are diabolical

Not sure if this belongs in this particular forum....but yeah

how big is your bankroll?

First get PokerTracker and PAHud to aide you and show some figures from a decent sized sample, say 30-50k.

Something about turning pro in the beginners circle just doesnt seem right.

I will reply to just one part of your post...the time zone concerns.

As you, i play at US off - peak (I live in australia), and find the game alot tighter and harder to extract value from post-flop. For me the best time to play is saturday and sunday mornings into afternoons, which is friday and saturday night in the US.

I usually grind it out and really work on my play throughout the week where i can only play US off-peak, then ramp it up with some MTT's on the weekends.

Agree this is in the wrong section, can a MOD move to the appropriate forum please

Thanks for your post jak and I kind of agree, Ive done very well some Saturday afternoons as well but have often encountered a bunch of goddamn rocks when playing weeknights -down under time- Particulary at the limit tables. I must try get my lazy azz out of bed a bit earlier on some weekends soon

It is well worth your time on weekends mate. I see moves with regularity on W/ends, that i may see once a night on the 100NL ring games at stars. It is a blow out sometimes the difference in standard of games.

lol though, most weekends i get to bed at 6am if i am lucky (ie. drunk), then sleep all day, so it is rare to have a dedicated poker weekend.

Thanks for that Leelin...I guess the problem is this though

You say get a long term profitable record before turning pro, but playing maybe 2-3 hours a night when already tired from a "proper job" is never really going to give me the greatest sample. A -- it'll take too long to pull together the hours needed and B-- They are not quality hours

Im thinking this is a situation where you just have to work out how much you are prepared to lose, give yourself a period of time to work with, and take the plunge. Playing motivated and alert at optimum times of the day could only improve my results......surely. UNLESS of course I've just been unbelievable lucky so far, (a possibility that has not escaped me)

Believe me....... telling my friends/family that "Im quitting my job to play poker full time" will qualify me for unbelievable amounts of ridicule. And possibly rightly so. Maybe I am being stupid ........and this uncertainty is the reasons I am posting here. I am along way away from making this decision, Im just looking for perspective from you guys

I really hope Im not coming across as someone who thinks he's the man, because I do not think that. I am well aware of the amount of mistakes I make at the table. They are many ...but they do not repeat themselves often. (unless Im tired .....or worse....smashed) But I am right on the mark of the top 2% of players on officalpokerrankings.com. I seem to have little problem breaking the bubble in around 26% of MTT's played. Is that significant?

Couldn't you take a week's "holiday" off work, play poker for 8 hours a day those days, and see what happens?

Thats the plan over Xmas ash

"family" pffft

Poker BOH!

:)

IMO you are a long way from having the knowledge of your game and bankroll security that it takes to go pro. 200 hours at maybe 35 hands an hour is only really 7000 hands. Thi is a drop in the ocean compared to what it takes to know you are really a winning player over an extended period. It would be quite easy for a losing player to win over a 7000 hand sample. I'm not saying you are a losing player, I cant decide that for you, just that your 200 hour sample doesn't mean much.

Also the mental aspects of going pro are way more streneous then most people think. I've been playing "prefessionally" since the start of the summer and have currently been in a downswing for my last 60,000 hands. I know I am (or at least was and I can't for the love of God figure out what changed) a winning player yet I find this is happening to me. I would consider myself pretty good at handling stress but this has come to the point where I am literally losing sleep over it. In hindsight, if I could do a menial job for the same ammount of money I would switch to that in a flash.

I'm not an isolated case either. Downswings like this happen to other people. I know some of this has to do with me not playing my A game 100% of the time but most of it is just straight up bad luck. You wouldn't believe how hard it is to play really well when things are going shit either.

Luckily I have made and put safe enough to almost pay for next years living expenses in college. If I haden't done that I would be screwed right now. And I've learned a valuable lesson.

If I was going pro right now I would get a normal job until I had 3 months full living expenses saved up and a 150,000 hand sample at a particular game at a solid winrate (200NL or higher). Other then that I wouldn't consider it. I do plan on doing this after I finish college next year. One thing is for sure, I won't jump in with the naiveity that I did this time and make this huge mistake again. The stress just isn't worth it.

Thank you, very solid sounding advice and you are probably right. Well you are certainly right about my sample of played hands not being enough to make such an important decision one, and you are possibly right hat my casino play and OPR .com ranking are a bit on the flukey side

Guess I'll just have to play more poker to find out. damn Laughing

I hear you on the stress thing too, when I just thinking i was a rounder muthfarker at the local casino Cool

.....if I was playing with the usual idiots and they catching cards or maybe just couldnt find a hand.....my god I would get stressed and pissed off about it all . Evil or Very Mad

It was a really awful feeling too

I guess what Im saying there is because I more or less knew I was a better player than 90% of the people up there, I was doing something I didnt actually enjoy much because I figured i was earning money/working. ie I wanted and expected a return

I cant imagine how much more it would stress me if it was my sole scource of income as well, doesnt sound like much fun thats for sure Crying or Very sad

My suggestion is to not even consider going pro until these things have happenned.

1) figure out a very conservative bankroll for being pro
2) figure out what living expenses you need for a year
3) make the amount you think you need
4) make waaaay more than you think you need
5) play 200k hands minimum
6) go through an Absolute terrible run that lasts for what seems like forever and come out of it

Then once you are finally able to roll around in 100 dollar bills if you should please, then its alright to go pro. I really think poker is a terrible terrible job unless you are making large sums of money, because if you aren't it is so likely that you will eventually BUSTO.

I had 1 year left of university when I decided to take a year off and play poker for a living. The year is now over and I've never been anywhere close to going busto with my very conservative Bankroll Management.

I started off multitabling 100NL and did so for a long time with little variance. Even at this level I never felt any stress to make enough money and I could take all the free time I wanted. I would say that its less stressful than almost any job since you don't need to keep times and you are responsible for nobody but yourself.

I then finally moved to 200NL and found that game to be almost as variance free. My biggest downswing at this limit has been no more than 7-8 buyins over about 150k+ hands. I've now also played an admittedly small number of 30k hands at 400NL with a largest downswing of 4 buyins.

In summary I have never been close to a losing month and losing weeks have been very rare. Maybe I am due to hit a huge downswing, but as for now I don't really share everyones assessment of the volatility of ones expected results as a proven long term winner.

Bill you must score really high in departments like mental stability, emotional control etc..

You guys that have all turned pro...are you making your living playing just ring games? Is that how most pros areat it? I've noticed a few people 5 tabling 5/10 limit tables so I assume they are either poker mad lunatics or pros trying to multiply their edges. Are there people say 10 tabling low limit limit poker and using something like HoldemGenuis to help with pot odds decisions and grinding out cash that way?

How about being a MTT pro? Is that a realistic goal? Seems to me if you made a couple of top 3's a week in the bigger tourneys you wouldn't have too many financial problems, especially if you are managing to satellite into a few of them and adding the odd BIG payday by winning a large tourney or top 5-ing in a huge one.

My view here is possibly skewed by the fact I've won a couple of MTT's and came 2nd once paying me $1300, $1700 and $3100 each time. Now......that's a lot of (nz) $$ for 5 hours work. Even taking into account losing your buy in each other time, one result like that a week is well and truly enough to get by on. Of course I may well have just been a lucky f00l, and I guess that's what I need to establish

You guys are pros.....do you even play MTT's or is that considered a bit of a lottery?

Apart from MTT's I tend to play $10-$20 10 player ring games. With reasonable sucess but I would def need to improve a fair bit to make money consistantly there. My bankroll tends to suffer because of unprofessional management more than anything. ie I will be saying "one more game!" at midnight when Im really too tired or worse I'll get home steaming drunk and leap on eagerly. Rolling Eyes

Also....do you have what I would call a "poker workstation", surrounded by odds charts and even psychological prompts. I've found my prompt sheet works really well for me. It used to be I would be 4 hours into an MTT and find say......A-10 suited or 8-8 in late position folded to me and my brain would scream ALLLLL IN!!!!!!! and Id find myself doing it without really thinking. Then Id bust out and be furious for playing that long and making such a doofus decision to end it all. Making myself refer to my prompt sheet before going all in has plugged a big leak for me. Getting a decent work station surrounded by poker information happening I think would improve my game at least slightly as well (as apposed to playing on my laptop, on my bed in front of my big TV)

Thank you again for your replies, and please don't hesitate to point out where I am being unrealistic

hee hee hee ask gabe

i went pro 2 years ago. when i did i was grinding out sitngos at the 20$ and 30$ level. party sitngos then got much more difficult and i decided to go to nl ring, i did well there, but my Bankroll Management was horrid and i ended up losing half my banroll in one day at the 10/20 nl tables i lost 10k. after that i only had about 2k online, so i went to the 20$ and 30$ multi's i grinded them until i hit a few wins. at the start of this year i had my bankroll back to around 20k. i continued to run multi's and have had a few good finishes, that is basically all i play now, with the odd bit of ring or sngs thrown in to mix it up when im having a rough day. They say multis are high variance and touhger to make a living at, but for me, i had a tough time with Bankroll Management and multis allowed me to fix that issue as i never chased my money back or played in to big a tournament for my bankroll.

hi, gl with going pro, shout out to a fellow NZer

If you arent making $100+ an hour plaing poker dont go pro.

hi midas :wave: You a Jafa?

Dont think I'll taking the plunge anytime soon, mofo's here are putting the fear of god into me Embarassed

hahahahaha (no really ....thanks guys, a slappin' is probably exactly what i need)

I'll stick to the awful day job till the Xmas break and see how I go on a 3 week poker bender I think. But according to the doom sayers even that wont be enough of a sample. meh. If I roll out another couple of decent MTT wins soon ie prove its not a fluke.. then I'll reconsider I guess

until you take the pot odds chart down you're not quite ready...

you won't be winning 1 MTT per week. 1 per month would be fantastic.

don't go pro at nl ring until you have at least 10k in your bankroll and a proven winning track record at multitabling (6-8+ tables) 1/2 nl or higher.

To anyone considering going pro. Once you make your first 100k PM me and Ill tell u if your ready.

Presumably because the risks and the variance aren't sufficiently offset by the rewards? Because you could very easily go for a substantial period while LOSING money and then when you return to the black you won't be bringing enough in to counter the shortfall?

If you become a poker pro there are lots of things you're sacrificing and risking*, so you need to know that the rewards more than make up for it. If you're happy to make $200 a week as a side income that's one thing; but if you're going to devote in the long term 40 hours a week to sitting in front of a computer and grinding, it's got to be substantially worth it.

*human contact, career progression, suspicions from friends and family, strained relationships, increased unhealthiness, stress, the whims of fashion, the effects of downswings, the opportunity cost of not doing another job, losing your love of the game, etc. etc. etc.

Just jacked my job in, turning full time pro in about 6 weeks. Thanks for all your advice, in the end I decided I was never going to know unless I gave it a shot. Build a bankroll of $100,000 1st? wtf? why? That will never happen

I'll give it a few months and if it doesnt work out ...I'll just go back to work. No problem. Im never going to lose money.... the question is can I make enough to make it worthwhile

See you on the tables Twisted Evil

Please keep us updated every couplke of days. Bankroll, withdrawls, stakes. We aren't nosey, just interested in if and how you do. We can all learn from your mistakes or successes. Good luck and I hope you don't end up with a huge doctor, dentist or car bill before you get the bankroll you really need. i only say this cause it's happened to people before and it's something to think about and prepare before you start withdrawing. Think about the biggest most expensive thing that could happen in your life and make sure you have double in your bankroll. Just for info sake, I would of had a 3 or 4 thousand dollar roll myself if not for a few financial problems that arose that I decided to use my poker roll instead of my creditcard just to stay ahead of the game in a new house.

I don't think 100k+ a year would be tough if you played a whole lot at stakes at least 1/2nl (or 5/10 limit).

Thanks Trainer...I will do that. And I wont be too proud to come on here and admit that I took a battering, over estimated my skill level and had to flag it. Like I have repeated many times, I dont think Im a super hot shot, to be honest I am not totally sure if I can make it as a pro. I do know that Im a good player though, I do well on MTT's, my OPR ranking is constant at around 98% and I steadily build my bankroll playing $20/$50 sitn goes. (I dont really multitable much and I dont play ring games) I also play A LOT better when Im feeling super alert, and thats not often when Im already mentally fatigued from day-work. TV and MSN will also be off ...i.e its going to be all poker

Thats why Im giving it a go...if it doesnt work out no big deal. I wont LOSE money. The worst thing that can happen is I just wont make enough. I doubt I will make as much as my full time career does ($80K PA NZ) but I can survive on a lot less than that, and the more I play the better I get.

People sure are fast to doomsay you huh, not just on here ... a couple of my mates want to wring my neck ....I dont mind though. More motivation to make to happen

After meeting with my accountant Im going to do some casual work for 2 days a week, keep the tax man off my back. Mad

So I wont quite be full time, one of the biggest dangers I see is *shock* getting bored of poker, so breaking it up a little will be good for me

Good luck.

Two things.. you keep saying "I WONT LOSE MONEY!".. well what are you going to say to yourself if you start with a downswing??

Also, check out BMX's latest blog entry. He talks about getting bored with poker as a pro.. i think keeping a couple days/week at work is a good idea to keep your mind fresh and some sort of routine.

gl man. Kepp us up to date.

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Turning Pro. Potential Pitfalls and advice needed

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Turning Pro. Potential Pitfalls and advice needed