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Posted: Fri, 03 Jul 2009, 8:26am Post subject: Turning an overpair into a bluff
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Full House
Joined: 01 Apr 2008
Posts: 1486
WPP: 98
Location: on teh button... steelin ur blindz
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Villain is 22/14, 100% c-bet in 5 spots, over 85 hands.
I don't think I can call the turn for value only. He might be 2-barreling an Ah, but I think he has JJ+ or a set there a lot. I don't like folding so I decided to call, check behind if the river is a blank, and insta-shove a heart if he checks.
if he blockbets any river, I hate life.
Sounds good?
There was a poster in case you're wondering about his opening size.
$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG ($20.50)
UTG+1 ($101.50)
MP1 ($100.00)
MP2 ($104.50)
MP3 ($126.90)
CO ($100.00)
Hero (BTN) ($116.05)
SB ($118.85)
BB ($20.00)
[CO posted $1]
Pre-flop: ($2.50, 9 players) Hero is BTN  
2 folds, MP1 raises to $5, 3 folds, Hero calls $5, 2 folds
Flop:    ($12.50, 2 players)
MP1 bets $10, Hero calls $10
Turn:  ($32.50, 2 players)
MP1 bets $25.50, Hero ??? |
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Posted: Fri, 03 Jul 2009, 3:18pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 19 Nov 2008
Posts: 813
WPP: 69
Location: in my dad's account making him manies
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| I don't really see how you can be good often enough to check behind if he checks the river. If you call this bet imo you should bet the river if checked to |
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Posted: Fri, 03 Jul 2009, 6:16pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 01 Apr 2008
Posts: 1486
WPP: 98
Location: on teh button... steelin ur blindz
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| I just don't think JJ+ are folding a non heart river nearly enough... so I guess just folding the turn would be an option. |
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Posted: Fri, 03 Jul 2009, 6:19pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 01 Feb 2007
Posts: 2124
WPP: 48
Location: Gainesville
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| yeah it makes baby jesus cry and kills a kitten or something but folding seems like the only good option |
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Posted: Sun, 05 Jul 2009, 3:59am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 10 Aug 2007
Posts: 3388
WPP: 82
Location: the ether
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folding turn here makes more sense than any plan to bluff
think about it, you're hoping to generate a fold from a player you called for set value - something is inconsistent here |
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Posted: Sun, 05 Jul 2009, 1:48pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 01 Apr 2008
Posts: 1486
WPP: 98
Location: on teh button... steelin ur blindz
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I did not call for set value.
Looking back, I agree that folding is probably best.
I think it's close though, but lately I think if I have a close decision and one has less deviation than the other, I should go with the nittier option just to make my game less swingy... I've gone from 18/16 to 14/12 in the last couple of weeks. |
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Posted: Wed, 08 Jul 2009, 5:40am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 13 Oct 2005
Posts: 2370
WPP: 74
Location: Here and There
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villain obv has a strong hand
your equity is brutal
patience grasshopper |
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Posted: Wed, 08 Jul 2009, 5:45am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 17 Aug 2007
Posts: 2570
WPP: 145
Location: GA
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| BankItDrew wrote: | | patience grasshopper | |
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FTR $200 Freeroll at Bet365Poker, November 22nd @ 15:00 ET
