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Posted: Wed, 28 Oct 2009, 4:43pm Post subject: trying to understand Barryg's fold
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Flush
Joined: 12 Oct 2008
Posts: 364
WPP: 215
Location: Stackton
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PokerStars Game #34617338835: 8-Game (7 Card Stud Hi/Lo Limit, $400/$800 USD) - 2009/10/28 22:12:55 EET [2009/10/28 16:12:55 ET]
Table 'Rana VIII' 6-max
Seat 1: rabcov ($10998 in chips)
Seat 3: ClockWyze ($22608 in chips)
Seat 4: romashka55 ($28487 in chips)
Seat 6: barryg1 ($8586 in chips)
rabcov: posts the ante $100
ClockWyze: posts the ante $100
romashka55: posts the ante $100
barryg1: posts the ante $100
*** 3rd STREET ***
Dealt to rabcov [Qs]
Dealt to ClockWyze [9c]
Dealt to romashka55 [Qd]
Dealt to barryg1 [6d]
barryg1: brings in for $100
aba20 leaves the table
rabcov: folds
ClockWyze: folds
romashka55: raises $300 to $400
barryg1: calls $300
*** 4th STREET ***
Dealt to romashka55 [Qd] [2d]
Dealt to barryg1 [6d] [3h]
romashka55: checks
barryg1: bets $400
romashka55: calls $400
*** 5th STREET ***
Dealt to romashka55 [Qd 2d] [Tc]
Dealt to barryg1 [6d 3h] [Ac]
barryg1: bets $800
romashka55: calls $800
*** 6th STREET ***
Dealt to romashka55 [Qd 2d Tc] [Qc]
Dealt to barryg1 [6d 3h Ac] [Ad]
barryg1: bets $800
romashka55: calls $800
*** RIVER ***
barryg1: checks
romashka55: bets $800
barryg1: folds
Uncalled bet ($800) returned to romashka55
romashka55 collected $5198 from pot
romashka55: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $5200 | Rake $2
Seat 1: rabcov folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 3: ClockWyze folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 4: romashka55 collected ($5198)
Seat 6: barryg1 folded on the River
Questions:
a) Is it possible that romashka55 is bluffing on the 7th street?
b) Shouldn't barry snap the bet on 7th for metagame considerations?
c) Shouldn't he bet the 7th himself even though he just has 1 pair?
d) How do we calculate the odds on the 7th? |
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Posted: Wed, 28 Oct 2009, 5:05pm Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Posts: 7972
WPP: 67
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I guess he started with something like (Kd 4d) 6d and he doesn't think the other player would have called on 6th unless he could beat AA, and used same logic on 7th. The meta game works both ways, if barry gets him bluffing a lot in these spots he can maybe get more check raises in. But I would assume more than Barry just knows the guy doesn't bluff into boards like this very often.
Could also be a misclick.
6000 (the pot) / 800 (the bet) = ~7.5/1 |
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Posted: Wed, 28 Oct 2009, 6:53pm Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 12 Oct 2008
Posts: 364
WPP: 215
Location: Stackton
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I actually thought the same thing about the guy's call on the 6th street. If he calls with QQ with the purose of taking the hi-pot he should have at least 2 pair and since barry knows that he can easily represent the two pair himself on the 7th.
I actually meant isn't he getting the right odds to make this call on the 7th? |
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Posted: Thu, 29 Oct 2009, 7:45am Post subject:
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Straight Flush
Joined: 29 Aug 2004
Posts: 4631
WPP: 65
Location: Stars $16 and $27 Sngs
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Barry probably had 4 low + pair of A which did not improve, villian raised 3rd on called all the way, the Q on 6th improved him to trips or at least 2 pair.
With the board as is barry probably figured the probablity he is bluffing is less then 7:5:1 |
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Posted: Fri, 30 Oct 2009, 2:19am Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 28 Jan 2005
Posts: 2655
WPP: 90
Location: Arlington, VA
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Assuming he only had aces (which seems like a fair assumption) this is an easy fold for Barry. His opponent's call on 5th is a pretty strong play against Barry's board, and practically guarantees he has a pair already.
When his opponent makes an open pair, he can almost always beat two aces, but Barry chose to keep the lead on 6th anyways because he has a lot of equity (I'm guessing from his river check-fold that he started with a bad card in the hole), and probably to avoid readability in these situations. When his opponent calls, he has two pair or better pretty much 100% of the time.
On the river Barry doesn't improve, so he just check-folds to his opponent's obvious value bet. Calling in Barry's spot would be pretty retarded. |
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