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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 12:17pm Post subject: Trips vs nittish TAG
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Full House
Joined: 21 Mar 2008
Posts: 664
WPP: 130
Location: Da Fiddy Ennels Sir.
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Villain is 19/13 ATS of 31% and 3-bet of 2% over 130 hands. He's on the tight side of TAG but not terrible and is probably capable of vering from ABC from time to time.
My image is fairly aggro and I've been stealing a lot due to the blinds being pretty tight. I think the flop is an easy call to allow his bluffs to put more money in. Once he checks the turn I'm a little confused. It seems like he's usually c/f this turn giving up on a bluff since there isn't a lot he can have on this board. He timed down maybe 10 seconds or so before raising it, but I don't see this guy messing about with anything less than monsterous after this flop action.
Can I fold the turn here? Is it possibly better to check back since he doesn't have a lot of stuff that we can extract from here unless he's slowplayed and over pair and got scared when we called the flop raise.
No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($56.65)
SB ($50)
BB ($10)
UTG ($50.25)
MP ($32.90)
Hero (CO) ($69.35)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 10 , J
2 folds, Hero bets $1.60, 1 fold, SB calls $1.35, 1 fold
Flop: ($3.70) 4 , 10, 10 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.40, SB raises $6.50, Hero calls $4.10
Turn: ($16.70) 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $11, SB raises $27, Hero raises $50.25 (All-In), SB calls $14.90 (All-In)
River: ($100.50) 3 (2 players, 2 all-in)
Total pot: $100.50 |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 12:44pm Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 07 Oct 2008
Posts: 510
WPP: 320
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Will Villain call from the SB with T9s, QTs, KTo? Considering that the river is a 3 ( results FTW), we are losing to all of these along with AT, 99, and 44. I would put his value/play-back-at-you-semi-bluff range at (a few combos of AA to account for some overpairs that played the hand weirdly):
| Code: | Board: Th Td 4c 9s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.178% 30.24% 04.94% 306 50.00 { JdTs }
Hand 1: 64.822% 59.88% 04.94% 606 50.00 { AcAh, AcAs, AdAs, 99, 44, ATs, KTs, QTs+, JTs, T9s, ATo, KTo } |
If he's not calling from the SB with T9s or KTo, things get a little better, but not much:
| Code: | Board: Th Td 4c 9s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.952% 35.17% 04.78% 294 40.00 { JdTs }
Hand 1: 60.048% 55.26% 04.78% 462 40.00 { AcAh, AcAs, AdAs, 99, 44, ATs, KTs, QTs+, JTs, ATo } |
The question is how often he is all-out bluffing, or deciding to just go with any pocket pair. Let's assume the latter:
| Code: | Board: Th Td 4c 9s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 77.390% 75.82% 01.57% 1935 40.00 { JdTs }
Hand 1: 22.610% 21.04% 01.57% 537 40.00 { AcAh, AcAs, AdAs, JJ-22, ATs, KTs, QTs+, JTs, ATo } |
Now we have him crushed. So this hand really comes down to a read on how often he can make this play with a suboptimal hand.
My argument after the flop action would be to definitely check back this turn. That gives us an easy call or value bet on the river, and in spots like this, easy is good  . It gives him a chance to bluff the river with whatever he bluffed the flop with, and if he checks your bet is clearly for value. If he check/raises the river, I'm paying him off because if he is good enough to go for 3 check/raises with a hand that beats ours then gg him. Also, our hand is underrepped -- it looks like we could be going for thin value with JJ+ and might have to fold to the raise.
Of course, this changes entirely when we have AT on the turn, when we're doing well against an only-value range:
| Code: | Board: Th Td 4c 9s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.237% 43.05% 11.19% 1951 507.00 { ATo }
Hand 1: 45.763% 34.58% 11.19% 1567 507.00 { AcAh, AcAs, AdAs, 99, 44, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s, ATo, KTo } | |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 2:38pm Post subject:
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{NSFW - nipple}
Joined: 11 Jun 2005
Posts: 2186
WPP: 107
Location: The Loser's Lounge
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| I don't bet the turn here. A nit isn't raising anything less than trips for value on the flop and he won't decide to call your turn bet with any bluffs he may have made. It's really hard to see a nit's hand that you're getting value from on that board. |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 3:49pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 16 Sep 2005
Posts: 3190
WPP: 95
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Wow, double check raise. It really screams 99 to me. In either case, I dont think youre going to see JJ/QQ here and you dont really beat anything else. I think the flop c/r is often going to be a call and c/r any flop as a counter to your steal so he can have a pretty wide range going into the turn, but the only hand you get value from with a turn bet is JJ (assuming he 3bets QQ pre?). So yeah probably check behind the turn and go for some river value, although Im not sure I would at the time. As played I think you can fold to the c/r if youre sure hes a true nit.
You do have to consider his spaz factor though. Has he done anything that makes you think he could be trapping with AA-QQ or bluffing with JQ? Probably not, but its BvB and stranger things have happened. |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 4:01pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 21 Mar 2008
Posts: 664
WPP: 130
Location: Da Fiddy Ennels Sir.
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I didn't say he was a "true nit" as such. Let me clarify incase I wans't clear. He's a TAG but one the nittish side of TAG. I don't doubt he can bluff the flop since he's not an uber nit by any means.
I hadn't seen anything from him to indicate a spazz factor.
When I look at this hand now I feel a bit sick with myself. The turn bet is just looking retarded and I have such an easy fold when he double c/r's here. Not even maniac fish take that line as a bluff very often ffs! |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 4:54pm Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 18 Apr 2006
Posts: 592
WPP: 114
Location: Montreal, Canada
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| One thing is obvious, your hand is incredibly face up. I would rather 3-bet the flop (which ppl can view as a bluff) than take this line - a better line if we're going to steal the pot. The turn is a fold because ppl don't expect other ppl to make big folds at this level. |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 4:57pm Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 18 Apr 2006
Posts: 592
WPP: 114
Location: Montreal, Canada
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| oh and i didn't want to make it sound like calling the flop was bad here....or that betting the turn is awful though vs a tight player check behind is prob best because you're probably not going to get turn AND river value and he's more likely to call a river bet knowing that he's getting to showdown than a turn bet with say a hand like 77-88-JJ-QQ. |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 5:24pm Post subject:
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{NSFW - nipple}
Joined: 11 Jun 2005
Posts: 2186
WPP: 107
Location: The Loser's Lounge
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| Carroters wrote: | | I didn't say he was a "true nit" as such. Let me clarify incase I wans't clear. He's a TAG but one the nittish side of TAG. I don't doubt he can bluff the flop since he's not an uber nit by any means. |
This is exactly why you should check back the turn. He's definitely capable of bluffing the flop but if he had a bluff he's not calling the turn with it. And if he had a value hand there's not really any in this guys' range that you beat. |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 5:49pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 16 Sep 2005
Posts: 3190
WPP: 95
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| Yeah I didnt mean true nit. I more meant nit preflop, so that there are no worse value hands he can have. I think even semi-nitty-TAGs can call preflop and c/r this flop with a really wide range, but noone with sane looking stats double checkraises as a bluff (at least not at these stakes). |
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Posted: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 8:14pm Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 07 Feb 2008
Posts: 1029
WPP: 92
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| Carroters wrote: | | The turn bet is just looking retarded and I have such an easy fold when he double c/r's here. Not even maniac fish take that line as a bluff very often ffs! |
Yep |
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