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Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 4:41pm Post subject: THE VARIANCE CHALLENGE!!!
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Flush
Joined: 02 Jun 2006
Posts: 531
WPP: 112
Location: London
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Can anyone beat this?
This is my 1st 10 000 hands of the month I'm down 13 buy-ins when I should be up 3.
Can anyone produce a graph showing greater continued variance than this?
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Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 4:56pm Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 27 Dec 2004
Posts: 556
WPP: 186
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11k isn't really that big of a sample, right? Also, I think it's widely accepted that those EV graphs and numbers are flawed. It only gets the EV after the money is all-in. Many bad beats and coolers, whether they are in your favor or not, occur before the money goes all-in and doesn't get accurately reflected in the "how am I running" graph?  |
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Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 5:41pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 17 Oct 2006
Posts: 3037
WPP: 73
Location: Not Giving In
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| Definitely sucks. I think you should go back to full stacking though. |
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Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 5:48pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 05 Jan 2009
Posts: 2206
WPP: 81
Location: sigh..nit ring
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| If you're a short stacker, this could be proof that a God does exist. |
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Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 6:27pm Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 02 Jun 2006
Posts: 531
WPP: 112
Location: London
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You're right 11k isn't that big of a sample, I'll update at 20k - If I can afford to get to 20k lol.
Also the situations you are referring to occur vary rarely and would theoretically balance out unless you are 3B sub-optimal hands.
New Year will be full stacking again, sorry again to any guys that have to play 100nl on Stars with me, the amount of short-stackers on there though is insane. |
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Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 6:47pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 25 Sep 2005
Posts: 3547
WPP: 101
Location: The Grind
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| I've seen a lot worse and been through a lot worse more often. This does not impress me. |
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Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 7:07pm Post subject:
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Straight
Joined: 02 Dec 2008
Posts: 207
WPP: 112
Location: London
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| Micro2Macro wrote: | | If you're a short stacker, this could be proof that a God does exist. |
qfmft |
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Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 7:49pm Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 02 Jun 2006
Posts: 531
WPP: 112
Location: London
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| spoonitnow wrote: | | I've seen a lot worse and been through a lot worse more often. This does not impress me. |
I was tilted obviously when posting this and have since gone through and looked at it in more detail.
I have just been running bad in 3B pots AI 1 on 1 PF I've played this month which is +150.
My actual EV is neutral which means I should have won say somewhere round the 75/150 of those three bet pots (Not really but to keep the idea simple) but I've only won 40/150
So yes not as dramatic as I thought but the consistency of that -line looks so brutal it's hard to believe it will change.
& yes that's what you get for being SS, there is some justice in the world, there is yada yada yada |
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Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 8:55pm Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 01 Mar 2008
Posts: 349
WPP: 138
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| noble007 wrote: | | Also the situations you are referring to occur vary rarely and would theoretically balance out unless you are 3B sub-optimal hands. |
This is plain wrong.
I get coolered a lot, I get sucked out a lot in hands where less than full stacks end up going in, and I get sucked out A LOT when 80% of the stacks go in before the river suckout card, and the rest goes in on the river.
These occurrences are either not reflected at all, or reflected in a very misleading way, in EV graphs.
That third case in particular is very common. When I flop a monster, my goal is to get as much money in the pot by the river (or earlier if I think villain will call bigger bets/raises). In the vast majority of cases, they won't call an open shove, so just shoving the flop is not optimal. So when I get sucked out, I often still have some behind when the bad beat card comes on the river. On an all in EV graph, that looks like I'm getting my money in dead, and when I lose the pot its "expected", which is clearly wrong.
I'm not complaining, because I'm sure it doesn't happen to me more often than to others, but I'm putting it up here to point out how ridiculously misleading all in EV graphs are. They are NOT necessarily a good indicator of how good or bad you are running. |
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Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 9:01pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 17 Oct 2006
Posts: 3037
WPP: 73
Location: Not Giving In
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| I like Noble too much to get mad at him for short stacking but I really think you (Noble) have great potential full stacking. |
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Posted: Wed, 04 Nov 2009, 9:37pm Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 02 Jun 2006
Posts: 531
WPP: 112
Location: London
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Thanks Kmind.
@ Tony - I was referring to SS who when they raise push 20-30bb into the pot so get in alot of 1-1 AI situations Pre & On the flop. |
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Posted: Thu, 05 Nov 2009, 11:35am Post subject:
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Full House
Joined: 01 Apr 2008
Posts: 1486
WPP: 98
Location: on teh button... steelin ur blindz
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There are 50bb min. tables on stars and deep tables on FT - or you could play PLHE where the shorties are confused. The more 50bb min tables are open the more fish will come. Recreational players don't enjoy playing with a table full of 7/5 tardstacks either.
END THE HATE!
As for the downswong: Been through worse. Won't show you because it's retarded. There are a million other factors, too. I've been on a heater and behind all-in EV by a lot, and I've had downswings where I was ahead. It's meaningless. There are so many other spots where you can get lucky/unlicky that don't involve hands going to showdown.
Don't underestimate the risk of ruin, and play with a proper roll. "Way overrolled" is what I would consider a proper BR. |
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Posted: Thu, 05 Nov 2009, 12:47pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 25 Jul 2007
Posts: 1630
WPP: 84
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still meh, seen much worse.
c'mon guys, let's see those truly soul crushing graphs! |
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Posted: Thu, 05 Nov 2009, 2:57pm Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 02 Jun 2006
Posts: 531
WPP: 112
Location: London
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Nice one Dozer! Prett Sick!
I assume that's mainly 100NL?
Thanks makes me feel better.
Oh & just to prove in my case most of my variance comes from running bad AI 1-1 in about 300 3Bet pots.
Here you can see 1000 of my 1400 - variance is just from this.
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Posted: Thu, 05 Nov 2009, 3:25pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 25 Jul 2007
Posts: 1630
WPP: 84
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Posted: Thu, 05 Nov 2009, 5:11pm Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 02 Jun 2006
Posts: 531
WPP: 112
Location: London
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Posted: Thu, 05 Nov 2009, 5:31pm Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 27 Dec 2004
Posts: 556
WPP: 186
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| Wow, almost 3 million hands and only $7k to show for it? Is super-nova elite THAT great of a program? How much "Rake Back" does he get? What other perks are available? |
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Posted: Thu, 05 Nov 2009, 5:55pm Post subject:
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 25 Jul 2007
Posts: 1630
WPP: 84
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| noble007 wrote: | | Wow. I wish!!!!! |
have some self-respect sir! set your sights a little higher FFS  |
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Posted: Thu, 05 Nov 2009, 6:56pm Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 02 Jun 2006
Posts: 531
WPP: 112
Location: London
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@ Jason, yes.
If he was already SuperNova Elite last year it means he will have made about $130 000 in VPP & FPP bonuses this year.
It's certainly not a fortune but it's alot more than I made this year, probably more than Dozer I would imagine as well. (But you can't put a price on self respect ) |
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Posted: Thu, 05 Nov 2009, 7:29pm Post subject:
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Flush
Joined: 04 Jun 2007
Posts: 525
WPP: 86
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Posted: Mon, 09 Nov 2009, 2:28am Post subject:
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Straight
Joined: 20 Jun 2006
Posts: 247
WPP: 81
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| I need to start playing somewhere with Rakeback...+fpp incentives |
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Restricted FTR $200 Freeroll at FullTilt on November 23rd
