The short Road to Bustooooooooo

Lets catch up:
After playing hard at the beginning of the year, I took it easy from March until May. I made enough to pay my bills and maintain my BR. I have been playing with a shorter than normal roll, at least for me, for a while as too much poker will burn me out. I started this month with 45 BIs for 1/2.

!/2 this month:
Everything started fine as I went up 7.5 BIs right away. Then doomswitch was flipped and I lost 30 BIs without blinking an eye. I wasn't playing great, but not 30 BIs bad either. My net at 1/2: -$4700.

.5/1 this month:
After some cashouts and the downswing I moved down. I went up an easy 20 BIs as the tables are much easier at this level. Then it happened, another 25 BIs downswing, right after cashing the $2400 June Bonus, only this time I was playing well. I started back up the climb this weekend only to have fallen off again to the tune of -13 BIs the last couple sessions. It has been a pretty bad run as I have won only 4 preflop flips in my last 50k hands, and lost my last 8 in a row. Net at .5/1: -$600.

My total roll now sits at a robust $2800. I somehow have gone from being a 3.5 ptbb/100 winner at 1/2 for the past 2 years like clockwork, to now having a borderline .5/1 roll.

The Plan:
Continue to grind hard until I turn this around. I am going to have to practice aggressive BR management, less than $2500 will require a move down to .25/.50. At $5000 I will take 5 BI shots at 1/2. Rinse and repeat until I get this sorted out or I go Busto.

Holy shit Jager, sorry to hear that, I always thought you were destined to graduate into HSNL around the same time as ISF and Mass tbh..

fwiw my br has been knocked by swongs from ~4.2k to 1.5k recently

Best of luck in your grind man..

Jager - I always admired your work ethic (I always knew you played a TON of hands) and am definitely pulling for you. I know you are more than capable.

Glad you are back btw. I hope you decide to post more often, not only in this forum too Smile

Unfortunately I never made much of an effort to get past 1/2. I had a 25k month there, and then took some time off.

I was a little rusty and a little tilty at 1/2 to start the month, but my recent swing which is at another 30 BIs I think is almost all variance. I running at 47% W$WSF, WTSD 27%, W$SD 52%, and I am winning 20% of pots overall. I am just losing 2 out 3 pots where I get it all in. I think it is hard to be a winner when your win:loss in big pots is 1:1, it is near impossible when it is less than 1:1. Isn't the ability to know when you are ahead enough to stack off the single most important ability in NL holdem??

Thanks for the support, I am gonna post more in the SH Forum.

Ha look who´s back!

I remember the last time I read your blog you were on a wtf-swing as well, best of luck the variance takes it easy on you this time dude

holy shit, you're a 3.5ptbb/100 winner and you had a 30BI downswing? and then 12BIs at NL100?

that shit shouldn't happen
you're due for 50BI boomswitch, gogogo!

Well not good this morning, but not terrible either. There was a brief point where I should have moved to 50nl, but I hit a couple hands and ended up even for the day. What a rough start though, 2nd hand was KK v AA, followed by a set v JT with trips hitting a T on the river. The coolers kept coming with more undersets/flushes.

iopq:
Actually I have 2 30 BI downers this month first 1 at 200nl, now I have one going at 100nl over my last ~60k hands. Its pretty sick when you think about it.

If you follow good Bankroll Management which I think should include a prudent 5% of bankroll stop loss limit per day, it should take a VERY long time to lose your entire bankroll. In fact, I'm quite surprised that a long term winning player could lose that much in such a short time. I know variance is real and can be crazy, but yikes Confused

! Do you have a one day stop loss and if so, what is it? Do you play full ring, 6 max, or heads up NLHE? During that time, could any tilt issues have been @ play? At any rate, good luck turning it around. Smile

Just to follow-up on the thought of actually losing a $9k bankroll while following a prudent one day stop loss. If you played every day and lost 5% of your bankroll and only playing stakes where you were rolled for 30 buy-ins and dropping a stake when you hit less than 30, it would take 99 days before you are not properly "rolled" for $2NL. Keep in mind you would have to consecutively LOSE your maximum stop loss each day and never win. Obviously if that happens, something more than variance is @ work. I assume most long term winning players win more days than they lose and the average win day is more money won than the average lost day loses ... say that 5 times fast. Wink

Again, good luck.

Well its official, I am now playing 50nl. Everyone flat out has the top of their range, or hits it. I just played 1100 hands: -$600. I got it all in 5 times, I won zero. Lets hope there is a boomswing coming.

BR: $2144

Pulling for you Jager, keep the faith.

3800 hands of 50nl, - 1 more BI. I checked my PT3 and I have a negative blue line for my last 25k hands. Hopefully this is a sign that things are gonna turn around, as I normally have a very positive blue line.

Basically this swing puts me in an extremely bad spot personally as I count on my winnings to pay bills. I now must grind like I've never grinded before until I can recover enough to start withdrawing again. I am at 100k hands this month, I think I could hit 150k before July.

negative blue line wtf, run better dude

Wow just wow, 5k more hands of 50nl and this about sums it up:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($91)
UTG ($128.90)
MP ($126.90)
Button ($54.65)
SB ($35.25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K

, K

1 fold, MP bets $1.50, Button raises to $4.50, SB raises to $17, Hero raises to $91 (All-In), 2 folds, SB calls $18.25 (All-In)

Flop: ($76.50) 7

, Q

, 5

(2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: ($76.50) 5

(2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($76.50) 5

(2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $76.50 | Rake: $2

Results:
SB had 5

, 8

(four of a kind, fives).
Hero mucked K

, K

(full house, fives over Kings).
Outcome: SB won $74.50

-6 more BIs.

Alright just finished another crazy session, over 7k hands this time. This time I started out with KK<AA twice in the first 25 hands. Thankfully one was only for 26 BBs. I hit rock bottom at - 7 BI's before hitting a heater to finish up $14 Smile

. For those keeping track thats a 50 BI'er, -36 at 100nl followed by -14 more at 50nl. I continue to play my combo draws as fast as I can, and I continue to miss. The big heater is on the way I can feel it.

Yesterday was not good: -6 more BIs at 50nl. I got beaten down by 2 50/20 's who flopped the nuts for an hour straight, one even had a royal. Instead of giving back their 4+ BI's of winnings they left. I don't really know what to think at this point, but I have to try and find a way to get back on track. Also its been fun playing with some of you FTR guys. Keep up the grind.

As soon as I almost talked my way into folding in this spot

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($60.75)
UTG ($150.65)
Button ($87.20)
Hero (SB) ($50.75)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K

, K

UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero bets $2.50, 1 fold, UTG raises to $7.50, Hero raises to $50.75 (All-In), UTG calls $43.25

Flop: ($102) 10

, 2

(2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($102) 6

(2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($102) 6

(2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $102 | Rake: $2

Results:
Hero had K

, K

(two pair, Kings and sixes).
UTG had A

, A

(two pair, Aces and sixes).
Outcome: UTG won $100

I get this hand:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($42.80)
UTG ($50.15)
MP ($57.10)
Hero (CO) ($53.40)
Button ($142.20)
SB ($55.25)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K

, K

UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero bets $2.50, 3 folds, UTG raises to $4.50, Hero raises to $53.40 (All-In), UTG calls $45.65 (All-In)

Flop: ($101.05) 2

, Q

, 2

(2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: ($101.05) 10

(2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($101.05) A

(2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $101.05 | Rake: $3

Results:
UTG had J

, J

(two pair, Jacks and twos).
Hero had K

, K

(two pair, Kings and twos).
Outcome:

I had a winning session until:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($62.50)
CO ($102.80)
Hero (Button) ($148.30)
SB ($49.50)
BB ($50)
UTG ($112.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q

, Q

2 folds, CO bets $2, Hero calls $2, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.75) 6

, 4

, 7

(2 players)
CO bets $4, Hero calls $4

Turn: ($12.75) 4

(2 players)
CO bets $4, Hero calls $4

River: ($20.75) Q

(2 players)
CO bets $10, Hero raises to $30, CO raises to $59, Hero raises to $138.30 (All-In), CO calls $33.80 (All-In)

Total pot: $206.35 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had Q

, Q

(full house, Queens over fours).
CO had 4

, 4

(four of a kind, fours).
Outcome: CO won $203.35

Oh well I finished ~even so it wasn't a total loss. After the redistribution of my bankroll, maybe I can become a Rakeback pro!

Theres obviously nothing wrong with the hands you've posted so far. Maybe worth checking for some difficult or marginal hands?

Well a new session and the same ole start. My first all in:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($47.35)
BB ($56.75)
Hero (UTG) ($60.50)
MP ($109.60)
CO ($54.80)
Button ($8.65)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K

, K

Hero bets $1, MP raises to $5.50, 4 folds, Hero raises to $60.50 (All-In), MP calls $55

Flop: ($121.75) 7

, 10

, 6

(2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($121.75) 5

(2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($121.75) 10

(2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $121.75 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had K

, K

(two pair, Kings and tens).
MP had A

, A

(two pair, Aces and tens).
Outcome: MP won $118.75

The most annoying thing is that this used to be a 200nl grinder uber nit. Oh well I rebounded well to finish up 4+ BI's over ~2900 hands. I had a much better overall approach to the 50nl tables this session. Hopefully this continues.

Do you ever 4bet to smaller than AI?

These hands make me sad. Sorry man. Hang in there and good job with your comeback!

Thanks for posting Jager - that takes guts. I have recently been running like shit and feeling like I have been kicked in the nuts again and again. Reading this post puts it into perspective... (my only worry is that this assures me it could get worse! Smile

)
Pulling for you to dig it out soon- no other way but slowly and surely...

keep at it man. things will trun around.

when you run bad you start questioning every single situation you get into - but keep playing the hands correctly and it'll come.

some sick hands there. all-in 5-8s? think he's lost that money he luck boxed of you yet?

Rather than focus on all the coolers or bad beats, why not focus on hands where you could have possibly extracted more value or hands where you were beat, but could have gotten away sooner? Every poker player "runs bad", but MOST poker players actually play worse when that is happening, which is why things always seem worse than they really are and why people love to label themselves as in a downswing or try to predict that they are due for a heater.

Remember, you are NEVER in a downswing and are NEVER due for a heater. Past results as they relate to luck DO NOT have any bearing on how future luck will play out.

I don't think anyone doubts you've had several bad situations, but I also doubt you've been playing optimal poker and still don't think you've been sticking to a 5% loss of bankroll daily stop loss.

Good luck turning it around.

Well another bad session. Wasted 1 BI on AQ, lost some focus when a I kept getting rivered by 2 80/20's. Other than that I just can't shake the coolers. Finished -4+ BIs.

Get a load of this:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($50)
SB ($90.45)
BB ($50)
Hero (UTG) ($160.65)
MP ($44.65)
CO ($53.70)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K

, K

Hero bets $1.50, 2 folds, Button raises to $4.50, SB raises to $9, 1 fold, Hero raises to $160.65 (All-In), 1 fold, SB calls $81.45 (All-In)

Flop: ($185.90) 8

, J

, 5

(2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: ($185.90) 8

(2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($185.90) 5

(2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $185.90 | Rake: $3

Results:
SB had A

, A

(two pair, Aces and eights).
Hero mucked K

, K

(two pair, Kings and eights).
Outcome: SB won $182.90

Followed by this on the same table 30 min later:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($44.25)
SB ($57.50)
Hero (BB) ($54.30)
UTG ($50.95)
MP ($54.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K

, K

1 fold, MP bets $2, Button calls $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $8.50, MP raises to $16.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $54.30 (All-In), MP calls $37.80

Flop: ($110.85) 5

, 10

, 6

(2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($110.85) 5

(2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($110.85) 10

(2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $110.85 | Rake: $2

Results:
Hero had K

, K

(two pair, Kings and tens).
MP had A

, A

(two pair, Aces and tens).
Outcome: MP won $108.85

Overall I feel I am playing well, at least my A- game most of the time. It just isn't coming through for me right now. If any of the FTR'ers that I have been playing with have any advice let me know. I noticed that all of you guys playing this level are pretty nitty, do you feel this is necessary to beat 50nl?

iopq:

So you are saying that as we get deeper we should be 4betting smaller? This may be true in theory, but lately I have seen alot of flatting 4bets with some pretty serious junk(Q8s anyone?). I am not sure what they are thinking, but its been costing me some $$$. Right now I am gladly getting it in when I have some perceived equity advantaged, whether that is realized or not.

Rough go. Sorry to hear, Jager.

yeah i mean we actually want them to call a 4bet with Q8s when we're 120bb deep or wtv, and theres no way you can lose money by them doing that when you have KK

I went through something similar in 2006. I was also playing for a living, ran into a severe downswing followed by several months of break even play. You start to wonder if you were ever actually good at poker. You start to play different.

My advice to you? Take a break. I know you cant take too long off because of bills, but try a week off. No poker on TV, no home games, no FTR. Trust me, you need a fresh start. Re-evaluate what kind of player you are, and play the same way that you used to before your downswing.

I didnt do this, and after months of not cashing out a dollar over tens and tens of thousands of hands i got so sick of playing that I cashed it all out and just stopped. Didnt touch poker for three years until recently.

Trust me bro, take the time off, it will help your play immensly

I really am not good with the maths of playing deep. It is by far the worst part of my game. It has been going a little better since last night. I am actually up a few BI's. 50nl requires several adjustments to be successful. I think this may lead to better things moving forward, including better tilt control.

Galapogos I don't even remember that hand. I do remember playing with you though. When I am not familiar with a particular regs game I will usually probe for a weakness. It can be very -EV in the short term, but very +EV long term. So many players handle certain spots the same way, and a lot of the time they turn their hands face up. Playing with 5+ regs at every table requires knowing their weaknesses.

What are my weaknesses? I'm not an actual reg, I'm just going through similar issues as you so I thought messing around on a different site would shake things up. No dice though Sad

Imo, It seems like you are playing a ton of these hands preflop. I know KK's are huge hands and usually getting it in preflop is +EV but maybe instead of auto 4bet shove. have you tried taking a flop with it and re evaluating your hand post flop?

I don't remember playing with you G.

Basically what I am looking for is how people play in spots, common and uncommon, that I can exploit. You probably noticed me donk flops from the blnds, raise or call too many flops, bet when there appears to be no value, cbet bet too much, not cbet enough, etc. Once I find players that play the same spots no matter their cards, like auto raising flops when donked into or auto 3betting from the BB when SB opens(or BT when CO opens), doesn't fold TP when raised, you know things that don't show up in any stats. I then will use certain ranges that I have formulated over the years to exploit those habits and turn them in leaks for that particular player, or at least until they adjust.

Also up 13 BIs in July...

are you one of the following:

jager244
jagerbombs90
jagerkid23

kk gl, hope you beat me out of 50NL

nice start to july. are you still playing a ton of tables or have you cut back some?

Well I took a 3 BI shot at 100nl. It went not so good. After being up 350, I finished down 500. I lost AK AI pre before I could get off the tables. I lost 7 stacks the last 500 hands I played. Moving down to rebuild.

Well after exploding(+5 BIs) for 200 hands at 50nl, then grinding out another ~7 BIs, I took another 3 BI shot at 100nl. This time things went much better +7 more BIs. Unfortunately I had to take some out. I am still sitting short of a proper BR for 100nl, but I think I will continue to play there unless I drop the 5 BIs to move down. I have enough after a $1500 Bonus to pay my bills, so it is just a matter of grinding my BR back up as even a BE run won't hurt.

Something I have been using to keep myself in the groove is this acronym: SPEAD. If I find myself losing touch with what I am doing while I am playing I remind myself to play my Spead game.

S: Small Pot Control game
P: Patience
E: Exploit
A: Adjust
D: Personal Don'ts, like don't draw weak oop and don't cold call without a reason.

I have found that this helps a ton when grinding long hours.

Some general thoughts about the current state of the games:

I have noticed that my biggest edge, my late street play, is continually being reduced due to the insane amount of lite 3betting that is going on. I seen where iopq stated that the players with a 8+% 3bet stat are the biggest winners according to HEM, but I really just don't see it. I don't think I have a winner in my DB that has a 3bet% that high, and I don't think anyone is doing themselves a favor by learning to play this way. Yes these players can make life difficult when they have position, but a solid 4bet strategy has been making them the fish at my tables. They play back way too lite, its like they think 'hey I 3bet lite I gotta get it in here w/ 55 as a bluff so this guy stops 4betting lite'.

I really think if you are just starting to play or are moving towards the 100nl+ level there is so much better things you should be focusing on besides 3betting. If you just focused on winning the cbet war and your river play you will be so much further ahead. Winning the cbet war will help your winrate so much more than you could think, and making proper river reads is the core of hand reading. You should also be thinking about all your opponents weaknesses while you play, even the fish. This will help you pick out regs leaks that much quicker.

You should also be creating ranges that you can use to exploit the other regs with in spots a, b or c. This is much harder to do, but after a while you will notice that the everyone is using very similar ranges so having a few counter ranges pre-programed will go a long way. This will also help when you analyze your own game. If you know you are doing something that is exploitable, find a range that will exploit it. Then find a range that will exploit those who are trying to exploit you.

That is all I have right now, I just felt the need to get that off my chest. I'm still hanging around the 100nl tables, but maybe not for too much longer( especially if I could start winning some flips ).

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The short Road to Bustooooooooo