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Posted: Sat, 31 Dec 2005, 8:44pm Post subject: Set with weird action. Thoughts? |
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Flush
Joined: 25 Apr 2005
Posts: 562
WPP: 154
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Just sat down, no reads.
PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR Hand History Converter
Preflop: Hero is BB with 6 , 6 . MP3 posts a blind of $0.50.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, MP3 (poster) checks, 2 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.
Flop: (4 SB) 6 , T, 4 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, MP3 calls, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls, SB calls.
Turn: (8 BB) 8 (4 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, MP3 calls, SB caps, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.
River: (22 BB) 5 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero ??
Weird action. SB checks the flop and calls 2 cold, then leads and caps the turn. 4 to the straight on the board concerns me and I'm beginning to wonder if SB has 7h9h or someone else has T7. What do you make of this situation? |
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Posted: Sat, 31 Dec 2005, 9:28pm Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 16 Apr 2005
Posts: 949
WPP: 56
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| i'm torn between value betting and checking down... mainly because one of them has got to have the 7 at this point, but if not, you miss bets. It's a lot better to not be completely greedy and just showdown as cheap as possible in this point. |
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Posted: Sat, 31 Dec 2005, 10:16pm Post subject: |
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Flush
Joined: 25 Apr 2005
Posts: 562
WPP: 154
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OK, good-- that was my line of thinking. Here's what happened next:
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, MP3 calls, SB FOLDS.
Now what do you think? Do you take the cheap showdown or is there enough reason to value raise here (and please explain your thinking if there is)? HU I think I'd just call as it would suck to get raised again by UTG+1 who clearly loves his hand. But MP3's willingness to keep calling has me wondering about this. |
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Posted: Sat, 31 Dec 2005, 10:41pm Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 16 Apr 2005
Posts: 949
WPP: 56
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| you close the action, flat call it... a 3bet would be nasty and you're better off at this point. |
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Posted: Sat, 31 Dec 2005, 11:06pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Posts: 3543
WPP: 78
Location: emo-kid
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| looks like SB picked up a backdoor flush draw or something and went crazy on the turn...anywho...i'm more concerned about UTG+3 right now....meh...many possible straights or higher sets. check/call it down. |
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Posted: Sun, 01 Jan 2006, 3:36pm Post subject: |
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Flush
Joined: 25 Apr 2005
Posts: 562
WPP: 154
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| I was sure at least someone here was going to advocate a raise on the river when MP3 just called. I did just flat call and took down the pot. UTG+1 had T8o, MP3 had ATo. SB commented "so many outs" before folding. |
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Posted: Sun, 01 Jan 2006, 6:35pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 12 Aug 2004
Posts: 1968
WPP: 96
Location: 6max limit tables
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| |~|ypermegachi wrote: | | looks like SB picked up a backdoor flush draw or something and went crazy on the turn...anywho...i'm more concerned about UTG+3 right now....meh...many possible straights or higher sets. check/call it down. |
yea i agree |
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Posted: Tue, 03 Jan 2006, 1:24pm Post subject: |
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Straight
Joined: 02 Sep 2005
Posts: 117
WPP: 101
Location: Las Vegas
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SB had J 9 ? Not like it matters, just speculating for fun. if it was 7 9, the 5 would have made his straight, so he wouldn't have folded.
-Kes |
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Posted: Tue, 03 Jan 2006, 2:06pm Post subject: |
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Full House
Joined: 01 Jun 2004
Posts: 1277
WPP: 105
Location: Drowning in prosperity
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| Kessler wrote: | if it was 7 9, the 5 would have made his straight, so he wouldn't have folded.
-Kes |
Actually the 8 on the turn would have made his straight. |
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Posted: Tue, 03 Jan 2006, 4:38pm Post subject: |
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Straight
Joined: 12 Jan 2005
Posts: 130
WPP: 112
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What do we think of SB's line? Should he have just called? Should he he not have led the turn?
Bear with me here as I just reread SSH and am trying get a full handle on all the concepts.
On the surface it looks like he has a straight draw and a flush draw which is 15 outs. But with the action on the turn, I have to smell a set (although my thinking maybe tainted because I already know about the set of sixes). Of course if he is a donk then he may not haved a clue and probably doesn't recoginize that some of his outs are tainted. He doesn't have the nut flush if he hits and if he hits his straight some of his outs will complete a flush and/or a boat. His outs:
4 Q's - Qd completes a diamond flush = 3 0uts
4 7's - 7d completes a diamond flush = 3 0uts
7 hearts - 6, 8 complete a boat = 5 outs
That's only 11 "clean" outs which I would drop to 10 (a 3.6-1 dog) because he won't have the nuts on his flush,. When the betting gets back to him the pot is 17 bb with probably 4 more bets probably getting called on the turn and potentially 3 bets on the river. That's potentially 24 bb for 2 bets to call or 3 to cap. |
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