Push any 2 on the BB: I can't - CANNOT! - bring myself to it

ITM, 3 handed, blinds 150/300, my stack is 8500 and other two 2500. UTG folds to me in the SB, and I should push any 2 on the BB. I know the calcs say it is +EV, but it just feels so wrong. What the ICM does not take into account is that if I do it every time, villain will know I push any 2 and open his calling range. Then his stack becomes 5000 and mine 6000... Bye-bye table domination! And now I am one coin flip to become a massive underdog.

I'd much rather give up my SB and wait for a better opportunity. Or let the two small stacks kill eachother...

What do you guys do? Really push any 2 in that scenario??

Edit: ah, but that is true. From SNG wizard, when villain opens his range (make him loose instead of average), then you should push only 56% of hands instead of any 2. Dramatic difference. So the model works, and if you suspect that villain will open his range, then you should not push any 2 anymore... All is in order!

One thing that you're ignoring is that even if you're called when you push 32o, you're still rarely worse than a 2:1 dog unless he has a pocket pair (and there are way more unpaired hands than paired ones).

To answer your question - yes I would push any two in the scenario you describe above provided that I hadn't shoved like the last 10 hands.

Yup, pretty soon you'll be loving the fact that you know to push ATC when the rest of the table is playing too tight.

I understand what you say with the odds and EV all. I think that the key here is that for the ICM to be precise, the range you assign to your opp needs to be precise, and as mentioned above, this is particularly critical in this situation, where a 10% variation in the calling range of your opp (from average to loose) changes your profitable pushing range by almost 50%!

The way I see it, correct me if I am wrong, is that by not pushing any 2 EVERY TIME, we are getting more respect for our pushes. Effectively, what we are doing is shrinking the calling range of our opp, or maximizing our fold equity. Maybe at the end of the day, over MANY such situations at one table, it would be +EV NOT to push any 2 every time? That would need to be calculated, maybe I will get around to doing it if I get really bored... The ICM and SNG Wiz only analyze ONE hand at a time, without taking into account what happened before and what will happen after (namely, the effect of our actions and table image on opp range).

Is representing serious pushes not also a way of manipulating (or dominating) the table?

There is also the problem that I am playing at low stakes, and so am frequently up against opps who "haven't read the book", and don't know about the ICM... and so I often do get called lightly, to say the least.

You are missing the point here.

Every hand, you need to assign your opponent a range for calling your shove. Based on that range, ICM will give you the answer of what range you should push. Every time you push, you effect your table image and the chip stacks change, which will alter your opponets calling range the next time you shove, which needs to be considered in the ICM calculation for that shove,

ICM doesn't ttell us to shove every time, it tells us, each hand, whether we should shove given our hand and the range we assign the villain & tghe chip distribution. It may be that many hands in a row should be ATC shoves, but that isn't always the case.

It seems your problem is assigning accurate ranges.

I agree completely with what Dan said.

You drastically lose your fold equity when you go to a showdown with trash like 43o and it is much more worse than making a shove 5x in a row without the showdown.

David, I'll admit I haven't read everything in this thread. But two thoughts jump to mind.

The first is that lower stakes players, particularly those at the <$5 stakes, tend to call more often those at higher stakes. Somewhat perversely, this often correct. After hitting the $6.50's again, I repeatedly see weak-tight opponents who call too infrequently. If you are playing very low-stakes, you may need to adjust for wider calling ranges.

You are also considering that many opponents adjust quickly to your tendencies. Most opponents at the lower stakes will actually fail to notice you are changing gears. In the end it takes them some time to adjust, if they even adjust at all! In the meanwhile, you have (hopefully) shamelessly exploited them by finding spots to push ATC.

I am fairly new to the forum but have been doing quite well on stars 9 handed sngs the last few months and I used to think the same way about pushing with ATC but david here is what i have found and now i'm making many more 1st and 2nd places. let's say you don't want to push ATC and you're waiting for a big hand and let's say you fold 2 orbits in a row to the BB now he's sitting at 2800 and you're to 8000 or less so he's stack has increased 15% while your stack has dropped about 7 or 8 % now the 3rd orbit you get AQ and push but run into AK he doubles up to 4600 and you're now down to 5400.... now had you pushed ATC for those two orbits you would be sitting more like this you at 9100 and him at 1900 now if he doubles up on the 3rd orbit he's only at 3800 and you're still over 7K. and even if he calls you and you have 72 vs AQ AK you are still 30% + to hit a pair and take him out leaving you with a 5 to 1 going to heads up...keep the pressure on them..... and I push rather than raise so that I don't give them a chance to come over the top and put pressure on me...I feel this method applys even if the stacks were reversed putting you at 2500 at those blinds you should push vs BB ATC you'll be suprised how much better your ROI will get

don't know if I missed this written somewhere in there, but one thing I do to avoid push push push every hand is, when you get a great hand, raise something less than a push. that really screws with their head if you showdown and you're more likely to get action with a good hand. when I push, raise, push, call, raise, push, raise, push, push, raise - my opponents get really pissed and shove with 63 or something. that's really satisfying to see Smile

Havnt read through it all, but 2 things to say:

1. ICM does take into account his wider calling range, however YOU need to do the ICM calcs taking into account that new range to see if you should still shove or not.

2. Just do it. Close your eyes and shove. After you do it a few times it becomes easier and easier.

Well and the other thing is, after they fold a few rounds of blinds to you, you're pushing their own $ against them, kinda takes the sting out of losing if you get called and happen to double them back up.

Some1 mentioned a really good point above somewhere and that is that even if they know what you are upto which if they don't at first - they will catch on - it's still hard for them to click the call button without a hand as it's for their tournie life.

The other great point is that in the situation u mentioned they both have 2500. So they will both be hoping that the other player will call so they don't have to, and this can continue until 1 of them is forced to call and by this time u have taken so much off them in blinds that the situation won't have changed much even if u lose.

My main point is that u might not clicking all in but they don't like hitting call and I'd know which spot I'd rather be in...!

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Push any 2 on the BB: I can't - CANNOT! - bring myself to it

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Push any 2 on the BB: I can't - CANNOT! - bring myself to it