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Gambler's Fallacy

  
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DaNutsInYoEye
Post Posted: Fri, 01 Apr 2005, 12:31am    Post subject: Gambler's Fallacy Reply with quote
4-of-a-Kind
4-of-a-Kind

Joined: 29 Apr 2004
Posts: 1920
WPP: 120
Location: St. Louis
I see so many references to this on the forums it's almost comical. Each hand is an independent event people.

http://www.fallacyfiles.org/gamblers.html
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Legendash
Post Posted: Fri, 01 Apr 2005, 6:42am    Post subject: Reply with quote
Full House
Full House

Joined: 23 May 2004
Posts: 611
WPP: 82
Location: Crypto 6max 100NL
Absoulutely, i always chuckle when people sit down at a table and say something like "does this site deal a lot of flushes" and 3 people will chime in with tales of woe and stacked decks, i just look at them and see $
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Bmxicle
Post Posted: Fri, 01 Apr 2005, 11:44am    Post subject: Reply with quote
Full House
Full House

Joined: 22 Jan 2005
Posts: 947
WPP: 117
Location: Vancouver
I've been hearing a new theory lately, its the lucky seat theory. Some seats give better cards then others. This guy was telling me how they did a test. He said that he won a buyin from one seat, got up came back and lost it all plus a little more in a different seat, and the guy in his old seat had also won a buyin. I would have encouraged him to believe this but i was too busy adding him to my buddy list.
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gutshot
Post Posted: Fri, 01 Apr 2005, 12:29pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Full House
Full House

Joined: 11 Feb 2004
Posts: 610
WPP: 108
Location: lemonade was a popular drink and it still is
I can usually tell in the first orbit if the action generator has been tweaked favorably for that session.
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DavSimon
Post Posted: Fri, 01 Apr 2005, 1:34pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Full House
Full House

Joined: 23 Aug 2004
Posts: 813
WPP: 145
Location: Mount Holly, NC
I almost choked on a jellybean (literally) when I heard this one:

Fish1: If PokerStars has less than 10K people logged in then be careful when dealt K-K
Fish2: Why is that?
Fish1: Well they are not making as much rake and every time someone is dealt K-K another person is dealt A-A to generate action.
Fish2: Wow thanks for the tip!
DavSimon: Oh yes, that is absolutely true, however we are playing a SnG and the rake is fixed.....
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thestrokes
Post Posted: Sun, 03 Apr 2005, 2:27am    Post subject: Reply with quote
Straight
Straight

Joined: 20 Feb 2005
Posts: 119
WPP: 62
Location: chicago
i like the conflicting avatars fromt he posts above...
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Toasty
Post Posted: Sun, 03 Apr 2005, 5:37am    Post subject: Reply with quote
4-of-a-Kind
4-of-a-Kind

Joined: 02 Apr 2004
Posts: 1522
WPP: 82
Location: England UK
yeah that annoys the hell out of me "welcome to river stars"

"hehe i love Party Poker"
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dwarfman
Post Posted: Sun, 03 Apr 2005, 6:05am    Post subject: Reply with quote
Strike 3
Strike 3

Joined: 07 Jul 2004
Posts: 3289
WPP: 119

Some of my favourites (used often)

"Ahh, RiverStars got me again"

"**** you, Lee Jones!"

"That's a PartyPoker special"

"XXXing joke you XXXXing XXXXty little XXXXXX, what a XXXXer"

And one that isn't so well known but since I play there I see it a lot:

"Only at Bugsy"
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Aceofone
Post Posted: Sun, 03 Apr 2005, 7:27am    Post subject: Reply with quote
Flush
Flush

Joined: 08 Jun 2004
Posts: 497
WPP: 73

Bringing the thread back to the original topic....

If you flip a coin and get heads 7 times in a row, what are the odds the next toss will be heads? 50%.

But what are the odds of flipping a coin 8 times and getting heads each time?
1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2 = 1/256
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Gambler's Fallacy

  

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