lolsnapfold?

Vill is JSharkHunter, a fairly tigh agressive player, what?! He's a reg so just mixing it up not 3b AKs pre.

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($52.30)
UTG+1 ($67.20)
MP1 ($100.75)
MP2 ($94.50)
Hero ($49.75)
CO ($118.90)
BTN ($49.75)
SB ($49.25)
BB ($25.50)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 9 players) Hero is MP3 King of Diamonds

CO says "ok dude chill", 2 folds, MP1 raises to $2.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.50, 1 fold, BTN says "you take a man's $ , show some class", 2 folds, CO says "ok sorry mate", 1 fold

Flop: Ten of Clubs

($5.75, 2 players)
MP1 bets $5, CO says "i'll work on that", Hero calls $5

Turn: Six of Clubs

($15.75, 2 players)
MP1 goes all-in $93.25, Hero says "??????", Hero says "lol", MP1 says "call", MP1 says "probably have the same", $42.25 to Hero ($42.25)?

LOL...yes..probably same hand, although he could have AcKc and a club on the river would be awful. Also, you need to worry about AA. And another thing, Id like to reraise preflop with AKs there. Really dont think he has TT or 33.

so, FOLD or CALL?

IMHO: FOLD, he isnt bluffing, and he either has a better hand or the same one, so -EV. Wait for a better spot to go AI.

meh id just give it to him.

The shove looks big, but I don't think it really is. Hero only has $42.25 behind. If Villain bets near pot Hero cannot even do a PSB sized raise. The shove really just means - he's betting and would call a shove if you shoved.

BUT (and it's a big butt) he wants/needs the fold equity of the shove to make his hand (more) profitable? And does it mean that if he did a normal bet he'd wish for the shove to happen on the turn rather than the river - so the money goes in while cards are still to come - is he on some sort of draw? But then that argument works both for and against draws - hands that are not draws will want draws priced out.

His range could be: AA,AcKc,AhKh,AcQc,AcJc,QcJc,AcKh,AhKc,AsKc,AsKh against which you have 43% equity (almost exactly breakeven)

PSB on the flop could be a continuation bet with.. air or weak draws? If we start adding more double club hands into his range our equity increases. Add in KcQc and KcJc and suddenly we have 47%. Add in QsJs, QhJh and QdJd as well and we have 53% equity.

The more likely it is that he makes this move with a hand that would call a raise all-in but which NEEDS the flop equity to be profitable - the more it's a call.

In the situation I'd probably fold based on a few nitty principles like: Small pot means any mistake is small (?) - it's a marginal spot and probably not a big difference either way from a pure EV perspective and folding is just lower variance.

i fold here unless i'm playing bad

I don't think you can muck fast enough.

ya, I just really couldn't put him on any kind of hand and it seem really out of line for him. I folded obv

I'm an idiot - in the quick putting together of a hand range I left out 33 and TT which obviously skews it majorly in the other direction. I think the general observation holds though and it's more marginal either way than a clear fold, with the fold only really being preferred as a measure to reduce variance.

ofc you folded, because that's what FR regulars do when faced with tough decisions.

What you could take from this is putting them to more decisions.

The play is so out of line it could really be anything, but unless he's got some read that you hero call a lot (which I don't think he does), he's gotta be looking for extra FE here.

I'm not a big fan of playing for variance reduction, but I am a fan of metagame, so seeing what a reg is getting out of line with and showing our 'mix it up' play push me to calling.

*Last edited by Muzzard on Fri, 15 Aug 2008, 9:40pm; edited 1 time in total*

apparently this is not a 3b pre and i stack off post flop. according to the experts/
'
vill is 10/8/6

Here are my thoughts against this particular Villain now that I've thought about this hand for a few minutes.

First, I call this pre-flop about 80-90%. I think calling is best since this guy will probably fire multiple barrels on Axx and Kxx with or without top pair.

Second, with a better hand than ours, I don't expect this Villain to play like this. This seems like a draw to me, probably a picked up flush draw. Villain has much, much more reliable and standard-for-him ways to extract if he has a set or AA.

I call here.

Thanks from me too, I thought I was going nuts.

Normal I have an instinctive reaction (fold in this case) and then I try to do an analysis and see if my instints are right and if I need to calibrate them - normally I trust my analysis over my instincts.

In this case I was increasingly beginning to worry that my instincts were supposedly right and my analysis wrong, and I was looking forward to spending an hour or two with all the particulars of this hand this morning to find out where I went wrong with my analysis.

Poker Forum

Join Our Poker Community!

Poker Forum Index

Full Ring NL Hold'em

lolsnapfold?