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Posted: Mon, 09 Jun 2008, 12:40pm Post subject: Do I have to call this? |
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Straight
Joined: 04 Jul 2007
Posts: 184
WPP: 118
Location: California
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I think only one of these guys is a winning player and they are all pretty bad. I've made a decent run at these 45s by being a final table nit and pushbotting better than most. We're already ITM, but this guy is a dork which makes me think he's not pushing ATC here. I think he's got a hand, but I've got odds. Do I hafta?
PokerStars Game #18025220320: Tournament #91460655, $11+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level XII (800/1600) - 2008/06/09 - 15:10:43 (ET)
Table '91460655 5' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Rentierrudl (15120 in chips)
Seat 3: timdmd (19105 in chips)
Seat 5: artiti (5290 in chips)
Seat 7: mcdonough22 (9910 in chips)
Seat 8: Gansovicz (11845 in chips)
Seat 9: love1day (6230 in chips)
Rentierrudl: posts the ante 75
timdmd: posts the ante 75
artiti: posts the ante 75
mcdonough22: posts the ante 75
Gansovicz: posts the ante 75
love1day: posts the ante 75
artiti: posts small blind 800
mcdonough22: posts big blind 1600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to mcdonough22 [Th 5h]
Gansovicz: folds
love1day: folds
Rentierrudl: folds
timdmd: folds
artiti: raises 3615 to 5215 and is all-in
mcdonough22: ??? |
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Posted: Mon, 09 Jun 2008, 1:40pm Post subject: |
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i rarely, if ever, get pms
Joined: 28 Apr 2005
Posts: 3990
WPP: 188
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so pot has 8 k and u have to call 3.6k?
Getting better than 2:1, pot odds definitely say yes.
I guess I could see an argument for folding if the table is letting you steal liberally. |
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Posted: Mon, 16 Jun 2008, 4:30pm Post subject: |
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Straight
Joined: 04 Jul 2007
Posts: 184
WPP: 118
Location: California
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| When would you pass up 2-1 odds? If ever, to paraphrase Chardrian? |
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Posted: Tue, 17 Jun 2008, 8:26am Post subject: |
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Straight Flush
Joined: 18 Aug 2004
Posts: 6414
WPP: 65
Location: Somewhere in middle america
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Posted: Tue, 17 Jun 2008, 1:09pm Post subject: |
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Straight
Joined: 04 Jul 2007
Posts: 184
WPP: 118
Location: California
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| I'm talking about a spot like this. I've got 6 BB and the shorty pushes for half my stack. |
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Posted: Wed, 18 Jun 2008, 9:17am Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 3307
WPP: 154
Location: Ellicott City, MD
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I don't think this call is quite as cut-and-dry as just saying "2-1 odds; I call." Currently you have fold equity against the average player. If you call here, you lose it (and end up worse off than the guy you're calling).
To me, this is actually one of the spots that I can ignore the odds, if the table isn't overly loose or overly aggro. I think this is a good example of when stack size considerations can trump pot odds in an MTT. That said, however, if your table is too active for you to get to use what stack you have left, then yes, this has to be a gamble. |
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Posted: Wed, 18 Jun 2008, 4:29pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 2185
WPP: 80
Location: donkaments weeeeeeeeeeee
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Posted: Wed, 18 Jun 2008, 5:57pm Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 24 Oct 2005
Posts: 2649
WPP: 115
Location: at your tables, calling your bets
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| Just how big of a chip equity advantage are you guys willing to give up to maintain your precious fold equity? Would you also fold AA in this spot? I'm guessing you all would because your edge here with T5s is already humungous and you still want to fold. |
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Posted: Thu, 19 Jun 2008, 12:31am Post subject: |
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4-of-a-Kind
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 3307
WPP: 154
Location: Ellicott City, MD
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| mcatdog wrote: | | Just how big of a chip equity advantage are you guys willing to give up to maintain your precious fold equity? |
That depends entirely on other factors at the table. The thing is, you shouldn't just weigh the equity of this decision, but also the potential to profitably play any two cards yourself. My interpretation of our read is that we are at best a 65/35 dog to his range. If I think that 90% of the time, the table will roll over and let me build my stack through aggressive play, then there is more profit in a fold than a call that leaves us crippled.
| mcatdog wrote: | | Would you also fold AA in this spot? I'm guessing you all would because your edge here with T5s is already humungous and you still want to fold. | Umm...that's kinda like asking if I refuse to eat oranges on the grounds that I don't like cran-apple juice. A hand that is 65/35 or worse is not presenting a huge edge just because you are offered 2.2:1 odds. It's an edge, sure, but whether it is more of an edge than we have through other means is exactly the question I want answered.
As a side note, that 65/35 number reflect a shoving range of 40%. If we think this guy is shoving tighter than that (as our read seemed to indicate), then it shifts further. At 20% (broadways+pairs+majority of A7+), it's more like 67/33. If it is to the point that we're 69/31 against his shoving range, then we don't even have proper odds to call here (so, for instance, T5o is a fold). |
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Posted: Fri, 20 Jun 2008, 6:33pm Post subject: |
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Two Pair
Joined: 29 Dec 2005
Posts: 26
WPP: 67
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| We'd be calling off half our stack and losing our FE against most other players if we lose the hand. I think there's a reasonable argument for folding here. |
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